Tenax Therapeutics is one of the highest scoring speculative biotech stocks out there right now (it’s tied for 3rd place - solid Bronze Medal,) assuming Fluffy here is actually doing what it is supposed to do.

Since this company appears to be one of fintwit’s favorites here is a full report for anyone/everyone to eviscerate. If there are any errors let me know.

The prompt that generates these reports is just short of Wuthering Heights already but if there are errors I can just add a few new chapters. Not everything on a GA chart is in the report and the gold diamond (ACC/Consolidation) Fluffy turned into a golden dotted line for some reason.

We own this stock, though I don’t remember why I bought it other than it tripped ACC/Consolidation earlier in the year.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

Part I. Part II. Part III.

Rumor is they have cleared the licensing issue which would have blocked any merger attempts so probably a good time to revisit.

I figured this crowded trade is a good place to show off the new GA Report Agent I’ve been working on for weeks because I am tired of manually doing BEST/BETTER/GOOD/AVOID analysis. I am trying to automate myself out of a job so I can retire (for the second time) this year.

Though this company is still French. And still has to get over French Authorities - which is a considerable hurdle yet. I cover this difficultly in one of the previous posts.

Getting straight to it as of today, Abivax scores a 6. This is a score relative to the entire biotech universe. It is potentially out of 10 but so far there are no 10s.

Here is how the Agent (I think Fluffy is a good name for an Agent) arrived at that score. As you can see the drug and company score highly. What doesn’t score highly is the potential reward from here.

The stock is already up significantly. And the relative return potential from here is not as good as many other biotechs that haven’t already run 1300%.

A 6 is still higher than a significant percentage of biotech stocks (I don’t have the data yet to tell that percentage yet.)

But, so far the highest scoring biotech just gets an 8 out of 10. There apparently is no free lunch right now.

There is much more to this report. We still don’t have a position and sold the initial spike a long time ago.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

And people love stories of villains getting their comeupants.

Two more obscure but never-the-less important events also happened in 1923, little known candy and gum company, Fleer, started putting sports cards into packs of Dubble Bubble chewing gum and the Maple Crispette Candy Company decided to run a now notorious promotional campaign. If anyone collected a complete set of thirty baseball cards the company would give that person a complete set of sporting equipment. This generated a lot of sales.

Sales the company wanted. But, it didn’t want to give away any sporting goods so the company decided to short-print the #15 Casey Stengel card to make this a near impossibility. Which was also good.

Tobacco and cigarette manufacturers realized in the 19th century they needed to place a firm piece of cardboard in the back of their packages to prevent the product from drooping and slouching and falling over on the shelf. Nothing says “good smokes” like a limp package.

Allen & Ginter in a stroke of genius decided to print pictures on the cardboard stiffener but it took 40 years for Fleer to realize the card themselves could stimulate children into buying their product and Maple Crispette figured out how manipulate the consumer using the cardboard insert. What Fleer did probably had a greater affect on your life (if you are a millennial or a parent) than you realize. You can draw a straight line from Fleer to Pokémon which is one of if not the biggest brands on Earth. If aliens have visited this planet.

It was to buy a rare Pikachu card.

It took another decade and a depression, for the Goudy Gum Company in 1933 to go full genius demon-mode. Instead of short printing a card to keep kids buying gum they just decided to not print card #106 at all.

Like at all. This wasn’t an oops. This wasn’t a situation where 132 cards didn’t fit nicely on sheet of cardboard. This was Machiavellian intent to deceive.

But something happened the company did not expect. The plan worked too well and even though kids are little they too are quite viscious.

By not printing card #106 kids all around the country had chewed and chewed and chewed and by 1934 they knew something was up and letters started arrive at Goudy headquarters asking “Where the fuck is #106?”

So the company had to print one.

There is a long history of manufacturing scarcity and market manipulation in chewing gum. But what happened eventually was the manipulation became the product. By the 1950s children wanted to sports cards more than the gum. In the 1970s, manufacturers realized no matter how much they printed and how crappy the cards were kids would still buy them. Then in the 1990s manufacturers realized adults were buying more cards than kids. And adults have more money to spend and expect shinier products.

A similar thing happened in cinema. The MCU was meant to sell toys to children. It ended up that the films were a better product and that adults started buying the toys.

Now today there is an entire industry established to create scarcity. Cards are short printed both as as set and within a set. Cards are scored and graded and packaged into cases. And it’s has now rolled over into the equity market. There are alternative investment funds buying rare cards. It was just a matter of time before this slid its way into the public market.

And it just did. Gamestop just decided to try and buy Ebay.

Ebay is essentially a sports card market place at this point. With Ebay live taking off. Gamestop is essentially a collectibles grading middle man. The merger makes sense…

for Ryan Cohen who will make billions of dollars if this goes through.

If you read Ryan Cohen’s bonus structure you will see that he gets shares based on market cap. And market cap can go up organically by increasing revenue which will drive the stock price OR by just printing shares. Not revenue. Market cap.

Printing shares to say buy a much larger company for example increases market cap. Nifty trick.

Between Gamestop and Space-X, the US public sector has completely switched purposes. Companies no longer are using manipulation to generate revenue and sales for an actual product to drive the stock price. There is no intent to generate revenue anymore. It’s just manipulation for manipulation’s sake.

Every generation has some slime balls that takes the next step from deciding to short print a card to just not printing to over printing to limited printing. Media call them geniuses. They aren’t. They just lack a fundamental part of the brain the rest of us have that says “don’t manipulate children.”

There is no gum anymore ie dividends, etc. Just a trade stimulator that you have to find someone else down the line to buy. This has always been the case in penny stocks.

It’s just now the case in the entire US public sector. And, I am curious just how bad this is going to get. Would WeWork have been allowed to IPO in 2026?

By the way, Maple Crispette printed so few of the Casey Stengel that it’s one of the rarest cards in the hobby today. You see there is only one known copy of #15 from the 1923 Maple Crispette set.

Though being 1 of 1 means very little now. There are literally hundreds of 1 of 1 cards printed every year now. If you do a search for 1/1 in Sports Trading Card singles on Ebay you get back 500k+ results.

Soon the entire US economy is going to be dependent solely on the ability of people to continue to pay higher prices for businesses that are just debt-ridden fantasies.

Without more money printing I don’t see how that can happen. We have turned the entirety of the public sector into a game for children. People used to take pride in building something. Now they just take pride in building personal wealth.

I don’t think is necessarily a problem right now. But, it will be a problem eventually.

-AJ

It has been quite difficult to get an LLM to actually produce valid analysis. Had to use an adversarial approach to get anywhere. The bias in LLMs is very hard to mitigate.

Here are two example snip-its for Ernexa Therapeutics and C4 Therapeutics (which we own.)

Fed held rates steady. Powell decided to stay on as Fed governor.

Powell staying on was pretty much a certainty since being in office means tax payers get to pay for his legal fees if the Trump Administration comes after him again.

The commentary of the voting committee just reinforces that Warsh is a going to be a lame duck and the next dartboard recipient of Trump’s protestations. One vote for lowering rate cuts. Three descents to remove commentary about softening.

Ouch.

PCE is tomorrow. But, unless I hallucinated Powell said PCE for March was 3.5% which matches consensus.

Watch the weather. If the US has a mild Summer people will stay pretty copacetic. Copacetic people are less panicky.

The trade for me is still the same. Buying puts on IWM on strength and flipping them everyday as the market rolls over. The market still has a ceiling. This is as little thinking as I need to do right now. MICRO:

The Avis situation resolved and my estimate of ~750M was way off. Pentwater made well over a billion.

Unless you catch a local pump and dump everything is just going to ride the same wave of uncertainty right now.

Protara Therapeutics (NASDAQ:$TARA) announced they are presenting updated data next month. One to watch. We have been playing this stock for years and still have a position. Though not as large.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

-AJ

Read more

I run Claude locally for prototyping and kicked stuff (as in punt. Stuff I don’t want to do.) Presentation graphics, etc. I asked Claude to look at stock for me. Just for fun while I ate a hamburger. It recombobulated which I think means to waste money.

The company is Envirotech Vehicles, Inc. (NASDAQ:$EVTV). I don’t have any sort of position in it I just sometimes go down interesting warrens. And there are a lot of bunny rabbits around.

Here is what Claude said about the company (after costing me a lot of tokens.) I have high-lighted a lot of fun words. Text is below the screen shot.

The Core Mechanism

EVTV is a shell-pivot operation run through a specific repeating playbook:

1. Dilution engine first — Before any pump, they file S-1 registration statements to activate a Standby Equity Purchase Agreement (SEPA) with YA II PN, Ltd., a Cayman Islands hedge fund that specializes in toxic convertible financing. YA II gets convertible notes it can convert to shares at a discount and immediately sell. This is the exit infrastructure.

2. The pivot narrative — The company was an EV bus maker with minimal revenue. When the EV story stopped moving the stock, they pivoted sequentially: drones → PPE/medical gowns → AZIO AI infrastructure → “AI Compute Platform.” Each pivot generates a wave of press releases.

3. AZIO AI is not a real company — AZIO AI was spun out of Azio Corp (a peripheral accessories brand founded 21 years ago in Taiwan). It had no audited revenue, no government contracts verifiable through public records, and claims of “$100M in government purchase orders” were issued via PR Newswire with no SEC backing. The merger LOI was signed twice at the exact same price ($3.00/share) one year apart, producing identical price spikes.

4. Identical pump, one year later — The most striking detail: Jan 6 and Jan 12, 2025 produced +382M and +761M share volume days respectively. Jan 6 and Jan 12, 2026 produced the exact same volumes on identical claims. The second pump is a replay of the first.

5. The reverse split — After Pump #1 collapsed the stock to $0.17, they did a 1:10 reverse split in August 2025 to avoid Nasdaq delisting. This reset the price to $1.70 and restored the share count capacity for another round of dilution.

6. Financials confirm the fraud — FY2025 revenue was $5.9M (mostly medical supplies, not EV or AI). Net loss was $39M. Stockholders’ equity was $1.8M. The company filed a going concern warning. The stock is currently trading at $1.68 with 761M-share volume days behind it.

I’ve never heard of a shell-pivot scheme. I had to look it up… and I think Claude just made that term up.

But, I want to focus on #4 above. Do you see anything wrong with that claim? Don’t read ahead here. Actually think out this and figure it out. Shameless dots to prevent cheating.

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Obviously, the stock volume data is completely wrong for 2025. Which should be the one thing Claude should get write since it just has to read the numbers and because it did correctly chart this information. You can see in the chart there is no nine figure volume event in January 2025.

Now I pointed this out to Claude and it sycophantically responded “You’re right!" like it always does and I asked it to reanalyze. And here is what it said in follow-up.

That is pretty interesting, right?

Now I asked Claude the following.

Claude insists on trying to make fucking tables everytime which are hard to cut-and-paste.

That does not paint a very rosy picture of this company. Now, I personally haven’t gone through this company, yet. But, this does beg a LOT of questions.

First, what Claude completely screwed up the most basic thing. The one bit of analysis that required absolutely no thought. What is going to happen with LLMs are used in a legal scenario? This is sort of like Claude reading a medical report that says “Amputate Left Leg” and it diagnosing cancer of the right arm.

Second, how is it that Claude understands fraud (it’s word. Not mine.) so well that it would accuse a company (or individual) of it? What blogs has it been reading?

Third, and most interesting to me, why isn’t the SEC just asking Claude to find every potentially fraudulent company in the US to investigate if the LLM can so easily analyze an entire company in a few minutes?

That is probably going to be a new business for someone. Let LLMs fish out businesses and then build a case to submit to the SEC to collect a reward.

Now, to be fair I did ask Claude more questions.

I am not sure I would ever use the word “Honest” in regards to an LLM but there you go. Is this analysis wrong?

I am not going to answer that question and will leave it to you to decide.

Now low-fi, I pulled the data and made a spreadsheet. I could have had Claude do this but since it appears to be bad with numbers and dates I thought I should give it to Google Sheets instead. Here is every recorded event we have and price movement around that event.

The company does seem to cluster PRs after tax season is due and it did just consolidate… (see gold diamond above) but Yorkshire Advisors is also on my personal naughty list. So I tend to avoid anything they go near.

I wonder if Claude feels the same?

So I asked it another question while getting some ice cream.

And then I asked what anyone who has read this really cares about.

And then I asked the last question.

So inconclusion … I need more ice cream.

-AJ

I asked Claude to make some predictions those are below.

Read more

Today, oil is trading at ~$100 on the futures market. That is an increase of 66%.

The total amount of oil missing to the world economy, if you assume that all the ships turning off transponders and magically reappearing beyond the blockade are not carrying oil, is about 20 mb/d. This is about 1/6th of total world consumption of oil.

Does a 1/6th drop in supply equate to a 2/3rds increase in price?

There is a rather obscure framework in economics called the Marshallian Demand Function which predicts how prices move to changes in the supply/demand function.

For a 1/6 drop in supply Marshall’s model predicts that the based on assumed elasticity the price should move as follows:

• Elastic demand: ~5–7%

• Inelastic demand: ~10–12%

• Very inelastic demand: ~13–17%

That’s the theory.

We have been in this situation before though so we can look at actual reality.

In 1973, oil supply dropped 7% (~4.5 mb/d) and the price of oil moved 300% in a very inelastic market. I don’t believe oil today is that inelastic. Rare Earths sure but not oil. The US and Norway are produces now. And countries now have oil reserve. The US’ strategic petroleum reserve wasn’t created until 1975. And the economy (including cars and planes) is much more full efficient today than in the 1970s. The oil shock of the 1970s is one of the reasons the Concord was grounded.Those planes burned two tons of fuel just taxiing.

But, let’s pin that as the worst possible case. That would predict a barrel of oil could reach $180. This is just one way of looking at this. You could say 20% is larger than 7% and therefor the price per barrel of oil should be up 900% but people will stop needing oil long before that price could ever be reached.

During COVID housing demand surged and prices moved ~40%. In this case price adjustments were very localized as people moved around the country. So let’s assume this is the best elastic case. That would predict a barrel of oil would reach $84. If you look at the oil futures curve you will see the market is pricing $82 at the September contract point. And this is why the market is pricing $82/barrel because the market is seen to be pretty elastic. It’s also why, in the US, rigs are being taken offline more than being added.

But, taking both numbers as possible, that puts an average expected value of $136/barrel. You have what the market thinks and what every paranoid sensualist social media user thinks.

Does $136/barrel oil in 6 weeks matter to the consumers? Probably. Six bucks a gallon of gas is definitely going to change habits in the class of people who are already struggling. But, in the class of people who aren’t. They already have a third car that is an EV already. I have an electric bike and barely drive anymore.

I am more concerned with food production at this point than oil. But, if one ship confirms there are mines in the Strait by finding one and running into it, my opinion would change.

But, does it oil really matter to the market? Now that’s the real question. SpaceX and OpenAi, to quote Margin Call, are “odorous excrement” and need to liberated onto retail investors as quickly as possible.

The market can’t be let to crash is the rallying cry here I feel. Market participation can’t falter either - or a lot of investment banks and investors are in deep, deep … well shit. So the market has to stay buoyant and retail traders can’t be skinned alive because they are necessary to provide liquidity in those IPOs.

It’s almost like the market itself is now too big to fail when there are potentially multiple trillion dollar IPOs for companies that haven’t turned a profit, likely can’t turn a profit, and are only afloat because of accounting tricks and manipulations.

I don’t think the Iran conflict has really change the calculus here. It has just increased the costs to Wall Street to keep thing humming until they can get out of this future-tech debt hole.

-AJ

In the 1990s, when a company needed marketing they would fire boiler room / call centers who would cold call doctors and dentists in Iowa to pitch investments. This all shifted to email by the 2000s. Firms would amass masses lists of high income or high networth targets but with email they would just spam everyone. This is when stock promotion started to shift overseas. There are different laws in Europe and what would be illegal here is almost subsidized by local governments in certain countries.

Today, a lot of it is on social media and the game is run slightly differently.

The marketing firm which is usually out of Canada collects a fee from the company but does not directly do the work anymore. They rely on YouTube, TikTok, Reddit and Twitter. What has changed is that there is often no money exchanged between the marketing firm and the social media account holder.

The account holder just is given the stock symbol directly or indirectly and they front run their own followers if they choose.

These accounts are easy to spot.

First, they periodically make a post that says something like “These are great accounts to follow” which cross networks other social media accounts connected to marketers. They often repost this “must follow” tweet.

Usually they account holder is out of Eastern Europe, Cyprus, Israel or one of the Stans. If you click on the “Joined…” link on Twitter and see “West Asia” this generally covers most of those countries. There are a few out of the US, run by foreign nationals. Here is where you can look. As you can see our account is out of the US.

Another tell is the accounts will change names, often many times. Which you can see if click the link to open the full view. If an account has changed names you will see it on this page. We have never changed names.

If the account has it will show this.

The marketing firms are hard to track but if you find one in the US they will have a disclaimer somewhere (usually hidden) on the website. Here is an example:

And if the company hiring the firm is listed in the US, the company will have to disclose the promotion in filings. Here is an example.

I specifically chose POET because that disclosure is very clear what the intent is. That filings is from 2024.

If you use Twitter search to match up the ticker with various accounts you will always find increased bot activity. And you can track the social media accounts that were likely tipped off to the ongoing promotion. I don’t actually think the bot activity is meant to promote the stock but to move that symbol hire in trending so the actual accounts get shown to more users.

In most cases the social media account holder will disclose they own but not declare a position size or if they do it’s almost always in a small account usually as part of a challenge.

If the account owner actually believed in the company they’d buy as many shares as they can. But, this is always sold as an attempt to help people.

Now, this doesn’t mean there isn’t alpha in following these accounts. There can be. I am just providing information for general edification and this landscape has changes slightly in the last year or so.

If this topic is interesting to you I recommend these two books:

Nothing But Money: How the Mob Infiltrated Wall Street and The Money, the Mob and Wall Street.

-AJ

And, I have code to monitor Vol spikes as well that I didn’t pay attention to so missed this one too.

Today, Skillz Inc ($SKLZ) announced a jury had returned a verdict in the ongoing lawsuit with Papaya Games.

Businesswire must charge by the letter because the press release said almost nothing.

“We’re pleased with the jury’s verdict and appreciate the careful consideration of the facts. We remain committed to fair competition and to providing a trusted, transparent experience for players and developers.”

Here are more details from the case from Bloomberg Law.

“Papaya Gaming Ltd. was found liable for false advertising Thursday and ordered by a Manhattan federal court jury to pay $420 million in damages to its mobile gaming rival Skillz Platform Inc.

The jury, after a little more than two days of deliberations, also said Skillz is entitled to $652 million in disgorgement, which the judge said she plans to issue a decision on in early June.”

The company had played this pretty close to the vest. There had been to discussion of the trial except in the risk section of recent quarterly filings. But unless you were following closely this was easy to miss.

But, someone didn’t miss it. Look at the recent volume.

The chart is pretty straight forward here. Full model value was just over $22. The stock tripped liquidity twice this year and was trading below the channel. Would have been obvious had anyone been monitoring volume.

From $2.50 to $10-$20 depending on where they exited is a nice payday for ten days. My guess someone at Cantor made this trade? Or just someone in the gambling/gaming industry who was paying attention.

-AJ

The Medallion Fund was created in 1988. The same year Jim Simons , the founder of Renaissance Technologies turned 50.

In 1980, the year Warren Buffett turned 50, his salary from Berkshire Hathaway was $100,000 ($424,438.30 Inf. Adj.) and he had already been managing money for 30 years. To put this in perspective, his living wage was less than a dentist three years into private practice.

George Soros’ was 62 when he broke the Bank of England. Jesse Livermore was 52 when he famously shorted the stock market in 1929. Simons was essentially just a guy on the bus through middle age. (This is a bit hyperbolic but you get the point)

The Medallion Fund did decent in 1988 returning 9%. But by April of 1989, the fund was suffering from a ~30% draw-down. Jim Simons essentially fired the fund’s manager and brought in a mathematician to fix the models but not in time to save returns for 1989. The fund ended the year down -4%. Not the greatest of starts but far more successful than his previous attempts which had lost money on net.

It’s important to note that what RenTech did in the beginning was essentially to just bet against any outsized moves in the currency and commodities market and to buy contracts on Friday when everyone sold them before heading to the Hamptons and then to sell them on Monday when everyone came back into the office and bought them back. A simple retracement strategy only on a massive scale with leverage.

With the ship righted, from April 1989 through 1993, when the fund closed to public investors, RenTech return 55%,39%,33% and 39% returns on an initial investment of $16M.

Simons extracted a 5% management fee and 40% performance fee on those returns. Doing a quick back-of-the-napkin calculation this means Simons and RenTech from 1988-1993 made $7.7M ($17.8M Inf. Adj.) in fees assuming no additional capital was added to the fund.

This is a bad assumption but I don’t have data on capital additions.

Simons most likely made more money from 50-55 than he likely made the first 50 years of his life as a code breaker, university department head, and twice failed money manager.

Most people don’t realize that most wealth creation occurs in late middle age regardless of what profession you are in.

Need to TikTok this so Gen-Z relax. If you are 50 and completely free of debt with a job, you too can become a billionaire if you live long enough.

-AJ

The Strait isn’t blocked. Lloyd’s reported numerous Iranian and sanctioned tankers crossed the Strait in the last 24 hours.

Avis Update:

After close today, Avis announced earnings will be released April 29th. The earnings dates that are posted online are estimates. But, Avis had their hands tied by the black out window so this was expected. They can’t raise capital in an earning blackout so this is the attempt of the company to take advantage of the move.

MICRO:

I sold today. This made 108% during the same period of time everyone was paying attention to Avis.

Rumor is Trump is going to reschedule marijuana this week. We are holding a position in Tilray. It tripped liquidity recently (purple diamond.) Last time it did so we did very well. Hoping for the same result.

I tried to buy a position in Richtech Robotics when I saw it tripped Acc/Consolidation but the order never filled. And then I forgot about it. It ran right as expected though.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

There really is no solution for the Iran situation that will fit together with Trump’s ego.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are 100+k highly focussed religious zealots. Iran isn’t Venezuela. So can’t send special forces here.

Technically, blockading a country is an act of war but Congress hasn’t declared war. US military leaders are not dumb. They understand they can be held accountable here. The Administration already has fired Generals for refusing to act illegally. How many levels of military leadership would have to be fired before you get to a person who is willing to break the law?

The moderate “leaders” of Iran, the ones the US has been talking to, are not in control of the IRGC which means they aren’t in control of the Strait of Hormuz. And the conservative leaders of Iran are not going to yield.

Central banks are going to have to adjust. Countries with lower credit worthiness are going to have to sell down assets like gold.

This has the potential to be the biggest economic catastrophe since World War II. Much of this is just what I’ve been saying since February 27.

But, there is a new update! Totally unwarranted exclamations!

This past week the average temperature in the US dipped. Did you notice?

It’s been great weather in Georgia. Really, excellent BUT wheat doesn’t like cold. You may not know but winter wheat is a thing. And it needs therapy. This map is basically showing wheat murder.

With the spring planting season already under stress in Asia due to lack of fertilizers a weak US winter wheat harvest would be awful.

Right after war of cranky Russian aggression started the price of bagels spiked and Ukraine still hasn’t returned to full bagel producing capacity.

As of today we have no position on Wheat futures nor on oil futures nor are we holding any options. It’s at that point where goals for the year might need to be shifted.

When things make no sense there is very little you can do other than wait.

I did roll IWM puts today and I will continue this strategy for the foreseeable future.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

If you don’t want to read it here are the highlights:

While the cross-stock mean buy-and-hold return is over 30,000%, the median is -6.9%.

Shareholders’ wealth was enhanced by $91 trillion over the century, but long-term investors in nearly 60% of stocks incurred wealth reductions.

Over the 1926 to 2016 period studied in Bessembinder (2018), 89 firms accounted for half of the $43 trillion in net wealth creation … (in the) recent nine years, just 46 firms account for half of the $91 trillion.

What this says is what I have been telling people for 25 years now. Namely “investing” is stupid. You invest in the private sector. Not the public sector. You speculator and trade in the public sector or you under perform.

While the database spans 100 years, the mean time period that a stock is included in the database is 11.7 years, while the median is just 6.8 years.

As I have said numerous times.

The negative median reflects that only 48.22% of stocks generated a positive buy-and-hold return.

Positive skewness arises in part because there is no ceiling on the potential magnitude of positive returns, while as long as legal systems incorporate limited liability, no return can be less than -100%.

One striking observation that can be drawn from the data in Table 1 is that the highest cumulative returns delivered by individual common stocks are attributable to annualized returns that are only moderately high.11 The median annualized return across the thirty stocks listed on Table 1 is 13.02%, while the mean is 13.00%.

The highest annualized compound return in this group is 37.04% per year, earned Nvidia shareholders during the 27 years from the firm’s January 1999 IPO through the end of the sample.

Timing is EVERYTHING.

What is even more interesting as that the majority of the returns come quickly and are caused by extraneous effects. Money printing, etc.

Less than half of stocks outperform their own value weighted average at the decade horizon overall (35.62%), and in every individual decade except 1936-45.

Only coming out of a DEPRESSION. Sorry for the all-caps but that points needs to hammered home.

…with the largest SWC outcomes for the full 1926-2025 sample. Apple is ranked first, with $5.02 trillion in wealth creation, followed by Nvidia with $4.58 trillion, Microsoft with $4.03 trillion, Alphabet with $3.57 trillion, Amazon with $2.27 trillion, and Broadcom with $1.60 trillion.

The majority of recent high returning stock’s returns are due to excessive money printing and share repurchases and accounting tricks involving stock options i.e. manipulation of the float.

The market exists to sell shares and that’s all it exists for so stocks will always trend to zero eventually. And the stock market is where companies go to die.

Some stick around for awhile. But, they will all eventually die.

-AJ

Powell gave an interview discussing concerns that the FOMC has about no job growth. The market appears to read that as rate cuts are back on the table. I don’t personally follow but small caps seemed to like his comments.

MICRO:

Mushroom companies rallied. We only owned NASDAQ:$ENVB. Which we sold this morning. Below the channel, gold diamond Accumulation/Consolidation trigger and for Enveric Bio a bright green alert signal. Obviously, Clearmind Medicine is not one we would have ever traded. You can compare the charts to see why. I realize that looking at these the red circles shouldn’t be red to be consistent since they aren’t risk related. Will fix the code.

And Passages BIO (NASDAQ:$PASG) got FDA’d. The drug appears to work but that doesn’t matter if the FDA is throwing speed bumps.

We still own Passage Bio and are still up thanks to being able to flip earlier in the year. Might have to sit on this for awhile now unfortunately though or take a tax loss and revisit. Have made no decision.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

On May 5, 1956, Buffett Associates, Ltd. was formed consisting of seven limit partners and Warren Buffett as the General Partner. The seven limited partners, family and friends of Warren, invested $100,000 ($1,223,011 inflation adjusted) and Warren invested $100.

Two additional single family partnerships were formed later that year so that on January 1, 1957, assets under management totals $303,726 ($3,714,602 inf. adj.) But for the year of 1956, the three partnerships returned 6.2%, 7.8% and 25%. The reason for the discrepancy is the fund formed at the end of the year better timed the market. Good lesson here. Timing is everything.

The GP/LP capital ratio of the Buffett Partnerships was $1:$3037 which is comically absurd. Warren, as GP, received 25% of profits over a hurdle of 6%. Which is also absurd considering in 1954 the S&P returned 42% and in 1955 26%.

The second year the fund returned 10% ($31,615), so Warren returned $3,165 on his initial $100 investment. This is why people start funds. There is no easier way to get rich than to use other people’s money.

Buffett’s partnerships operated as a pooled investment vehicles, but he did use GP/LP structure that is common to hedge funds today.

The first “hedged fund” was created in 1949 by Alfred Winslow Jones, a financial journalist, with $100,000 of which $40,000 was Jones’ own money. That is a capital ratio of 4:6. A modern hedge fund usually forms around a 1:10 ratio though often the GP is staked.

Like Buffett, Jones was born into wealth but that (and the chosen legal structure) is where the similarities end.

When Buffett was stealing sporting goods in the 1930s, Jones worked for the State Department in Germany and eventually operated as spy after falling in low with a Marxist sympathizer.

When Hitler took power, Jones returned to the US and got a Masters degree in Sociology writing a thesis which was published in 1941 as a book entitled Life, Liberty, and Property: A Story of Conflict and a Measurement of Conflicting Rights.

Basically, what I am saying here is that Jones was James Bond.

But, what Jones really should be known for an essay published on the role psychology plays in markets. That and the fact he basically invented the entire hedge fund industry and most trade techniques deployed by the industry today. Just to give you an example of how ahead of his time he was, Jones set up paper trading accounts for brokers and kept track of returns. The best performing accounts received bonuses and he always had the best analysis at his disposal.

He invented the pod concept as well and he required managers to invest their own capital so that they actually had incentives to make money. Something Fred Schwed pointed out was a problem in his book Where are the Customer’s Yachts.

Unlike Buffett, Jones kept to himself and in fact avoided publicity and attention seeking. A necessity since at the time the regulatory landscape imposed limits on leverage and short selling. He operated in the shadows at private dinner parties not in the pages of investment journals.

This all changed in 1966, when Fortune wrote an article calling Jones the “best professional money manager.” From there the cat was out of the bag and everyone on Wall Street started to clone what he had built.

From 1950 through 1984, before Jones quit to do work for the Peace Corp, his fund had positive returns for 31 out of 34 years. Buffet had four down years ‘66, ‘70, ‘74 and ‘84.

The firm he built is still in business today.

The Trump Administration is attempting to distract the world from the situation in Iran (which is completely under the control of Iran at this point) by announcing it is going to release UFO documents.

There is zero percent chance any other life form has visited Earth. If you believe this you have the intelligence of a Koala and should have to wear a special hat on your head to protect yourself from drowning in the shower.

China is beginning to posture over the Taiwan now. I think it’s just a matter of time. The US looks completely incompetent and flaccid at this point and war (an actual war) looks ever more plausible. It’s curious that this possibility is not being discussed.

China looks to be setting up Japan as the fall guy:

“Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun slammed the move as a serious threat to China's sovereignty and security at a press conference the same day, and said China lodged a strong protest with Japan.”

Back to Iran, Trump lied again today. Then Iran called bullshit. I don’t see how the oil dislocation unwinds without a massive shock to traders. All China has to do is keep Iran in the game long enough for American’s to tire of $5+ gas and then take Taiwan.

MICRO:

Intel shot up. I am drawing attention to this because the stock’s gain since 2020 is the same as the gain since January 2026. Who says timing isn’t important? And to just remind people that the market did spend over a decade going absolutely nowhere.

I get it though.

We just had Artemis II fly around the Moon and everyday we get shown videos of robots running really fast or falling over while attempting to run really fast. Or videos of robots very slowly julienning carrots. Because, that’s what we all want. A robot to run for us and take twelve hours to make stir fry.

NASA moved forward the delivery schedule a few years and the internet went ape-shit over a nuclear reactor on the Moon.

NuScale (NASDAQ:$SMR) recently returned to the channel. It’s amazing how that happens. We still own Terra Innovatum (NASDAQ:$NKLR.)

There is this general feeling that we are about to live in the era of the Jetson’s amongst market participants.

So I started rolling Puts again. I bought around 1pm and just sold them as the market turned. Just going to ease back into the trade I had been running since January.

Market strength. Buy Puts. Simple.

Happy thoughts aren’t a viable long-term business model.

What is a very via business model is manipulating the float to sell shares. Now that a hedge fund has demonstrated how effective that can be using Avis (NYSE:$CAR) I wonder how many more funds will run the same gambit?

What is most interesting about this is the number of pundits and hedge fund managers (some really famous ones) that have made a comment that demonstrate they lack understanding of some basic market mechanic.

I have run out of popcorn. Must solve this problem.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

In honor of the Highlander franchise getting a reboot I wrote this post.

In it I detailed six stocks $KLRS,$KYTX,$BRNS,$ANTX,$ACET and $TCRX. Since August 2025, the average return (assuming equal weight positions across all six accounts) is 69.77%.

All stocks returned +50% during the intervening period with ANTX returning a max gain of 516%, KLRS 375% and KYTX 286%.

We no longer own ANTX, KLRS nor KYTX. But we still own the others.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

If you believe anything the Trump Administration is saying about the situation in the Persian Gulf I would like to sell you some magic beans that will make your dick grow large enough it can be a pool floaty.

There is no credible source saying Iran is going to comply with any of the Administration’s polite requests.

In fact Iran appears to be rearming.

Just look at the traffic out of the Strait. It’s still not moving.

The reason behind the disconnect between the dated oil prices on the ground and the futures market is - racism. Traders believe (quite correctly) that oil markets will direct oil towards only industrialized countries and just abandon everyone else. So when you read the price of oil in The Philippines is $250/barrel this is forced demand destruction.

Congress voted on the Iran “war.” And decided to do nothing about this situation. Both Democrats and Republicans voted to do nothing.

But today, Portugal did do something momentous. That country issued bonds today denominated in the Yuan. This is the first time an allied power has issued bonds in the Chinese currency.

That seems like it should be headline news. But, it wasn’t.

MICRO:

The accoutrement of the AI race all took off since March 12. Broadcom (NASDAQ:$AVGO), Advanced Micro (NASDAQ:$AMD), Intel (NASDAQ:$INTC) are all up 40% in a month. They all tripped ∆Liquidity (purple diamond) and took off. NASDAQ closed at an all time high today.

There is a peptide war going on behind the peptide PR campaign and endless promotion you see on social media.

Under CDER Guidance: “Regulatory Considerations for Therapeutic Peptides and Proteins”, the FDA classifies any molecule under ~40 amino acids a small molecule peptide. Any molecule comprised of more than 40 amino acids is a biologic. Under current regulations, peptides can be compounded. Biologics can not.

The GLP-1s, Semaglutide (31 amino acids) and Retatrutide (39 amino acids) fall into the peptide classification.

But, Eli Lilly is currently attempting to shoe-horm side chains into the chain count to push Retatrutide over biologic limit preventing it from being compounded. Lawyers.

1+1 = banana

If Eli Lilly manages to convince the FDA of this there are real implications to the ongoing GLP-1 battle being waged between Novo, Eli and McDonalds.

I am hoping the VIX gets to 13 in the next ten days during this supposed cease fire.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

This was pretty brilliant. And amazingly enough, it was done completely in full view, so we can review.

Briefly, here is what happened.

On February 18, 2026, Avis announced earnings and the stock dropped falling from $124 to $92.

A hedge fund added shares and then took out a synthetic long position via total return swaps on February 20. The document was filed on February 24.

The use of TRS allows them to control shares without being custodians of those shares circumventing additional filing requirements. (The Tiger Cubs use this strategy to hide what they are doing. Google Archegos Capital if you want to see what weapons of financial destruction TRS can be.)

At the same the fund wrote Put contracts that expired March 20, 2026. As the stock moved they exercised those Put contracts and also took out September 18 2026 $80 and $85 Call contracts. This increased their share position and forced the counter party to buy stock to hedge the Calls. Essentially, they were providing a floor while other parties continued to short.

On March 20, they exercised all outstanding in-the-money Puts taking over those positions causing a volume spike the following day.

The key to this squeeze is the 12M synthetic long position held via TRS. The counter party to those trades essentially guaranteed the float would be negative and stay negative.

I will leave it to you to go through the filings and follow along step-by-step, which you should do as this is truly masterful market manipulation.

The key piece of information is Footnote 9 in the Form 3 which reads:

“The swap agreements shall continue until terminated as elected by the parties and currently have an initial reference termination date as set forth in column (2). The swap agreements provide the Pentwater Funds with economic results that are comparable to the economic results of ownership but do not provide them or the Reporting Persons with the power to vote or direct the voting or dispose of or direct the disposition of the shares that are referenced in the swap agreements (such shares, the "Subject Shares"). The Reporting Persons disclaims beneficial ownership of the Subject Shares except to the extent of its or his pecuniary interest therein, if any.”

But, each Form 4 and 13G/A adds a little bit of the story.

No I don’t have any idea what the long game is here. I don’t know if there is some turn around story or if this was just a good old fashion short trap and squeeze. I guess we will find out.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

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