Oil went down. Market still rolled over.

The FDA announced new guidance. Basically, big pharma won and the FDA has gone from being a guillotine to a narcoleptic pussy cat.

Yay for investors! Boo for anyone taking a new drug. Let’s see if this momentum continues.

MICRO:

AbbVie bought retail favorite Nektar Therapeutics. Sorry, checking the press release again actually AbbView bought Apogee Therapeutics Inc a direct competitor of Nektar for $135/share a stock retail was heavily shorting.

I don’t play the acquisition game. But, I do have a score sheet for it. Apogee scored in the 90s. Nektar scores in the 60s as of today. Good, but not great.

If you make a decision on a stock and the market makes the polar opposite decision, you should re-evaluate how you think. Not complain about how the company got it wrong.

-AJ

I did work (pun) in graduate school on glycoproteins. I would attach one protein to an AFM tip and another to a substrate and then measure the force required to break the bonds. This was part of larger study on cancer and cancer sensing.

So I am a dork.

I also used to work at a Children’s Hospital so I am used to explaining things to kids. It helps me to write stuff like this since it forces me to really think. Something I typically try to avoid doing.

We also own all of the stocks that I will discuss in this.

End of Disclaimer:

Imagine you are locked in a dark room wearing total sound canceling head phones. You are told there are two other people in the room. One of them will kill you if you are still in the room in 24 hours but will not harm you until them. (I know. Dark analogy.)

The other has the key to the door.

How would you figure out which person is which?

Well, you can’t talk to them because no one can hear anything. You can’t see them. Can you smell brass? Maybe. But what if the brass you are smelling is casing of a bullet the would-be murder has in his/her pocket?

It seems risky to base this decision on smell.

What you can do is just feel up both people until you find a key shaped object. This is how your immune system works.

Every cell is covered in various forms of biological velcro and immune cells feel around and try to identify what type of cell they are feeling up based on the types of velcro. Some velcro has long stems and small hooks. Some velcro is cork-screwed. Some velcro is shaped like a pretzel. Some velcro means a good happy cell. Some velcro means a virus or cancer. We call the class of molecules on the surface of cells glycoproteins and scientists give each unique form of velcro really boring names like HLA-A, HLA-B, HLA-C, CD19, CD20 and my favorite CD47 the “please don’t eat me” velcro. Some of these glycoproteins are on a lot of different cells. Some are only found on certain cells for example CD19. More on this in a second.

Now you might ask how does a cell know if another cell is infected by a virus? Well, the velcro is always changing. A cell presents on it’s surface chemicals that tell what is going on inside the cell. So when a cell is infected by a virus its velcro shows a change.

These handsy hunter cells (which scientists call T-cells) are always feeling up other cells. When they find bad velcro on the surface of one they kill it.

They kill that cell dead. Sorry, they un-alive it. Scary words. This works great if you have a cold or the flu.

Sometimes these handsy hunter cells don’t know what velcro to look for. So another type of cell, when it finds bad velcro (usually a new bad velcro,) will put a post-it note on that cell and the handsy hunter cell whenever it feels a post-it note does it thing. And then that helper cell makes a memory of that new velcro to it can remember it. These post-it note labeling helper cells are called B-cells. And the post-it notes scientists call antibodies.

Now this system works - most of the time.

Sometimes it doesn’t. Sometimes the handsy cells start killing perfectly normal cells. Whenever this happens scientists invent a funny name for it under the umbrella term auto-immune disease.

Sometimes the helper cell starts putting post-it notes everywhere causing the handsy hunter cells to start attacking healthy cells

The funny name scientists gave to this disease is Lupus.

One way to cure Lupus is to put a new cell into the body that hunts the B-cells. So they can’t put post-it notes on your liver and pancreas. This is what Cabaletta Bio (CABA) and Lyell Immunopharma (LYEL) are trying to do.

We are on our second trip with LYEL already.

You see the CD19 velcro only occurs on B-cells. So those companies are creating new cells that specifically kill B-cells by finding that velcro.

After killing all the B-cells the body starts over (in theory) and creates new B-cells that don’t have post-it note usage problems.

Another way (and a harder but potentiall safer way) is not kill all the B-cells just the bad B-cells. This is what Adicet Bio is trying to do by way of CD20.

You could just temporarily tell B-cells to stop with the post-it notes. This is what Cartesian Therapeutics Inc is trying to do.

Or you could dial down the stress. Going back to our dark room, what if you had 48 hours to figure it out? That seems less stressful. That’s what Artiva Biotherapeutics Inc is trying to do.

We are on round three with ARTV.

I fed this blog post into ChatGPT. It gave me an 8 out of 10 for the analogy which is a solid “B.”

I then told it to frame each drug company in terms of my analogy. It gets confusing keeping track of all of this. Hope this helps.

If I missed any stocks just cut-and-paste and do the same.

We own all of these. As I said before and will be adding as this space begins to show clarity what the best direction is.

As always, if you think there are spelling errors update your dictionary to the latest version. Happy speculation!

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

Market basically took the Iran news and unloaded into it. No one believes Trump anymore.

MICRO:

This company called… who the fuck cares really.. it’s out of Israel and the war is stopped for the moment so of course it’s going to go up. Oldest trick in the penny stock scam book. File to dilute and then call whoops.

This ran right on the exact date the FST predicted too. Obviously, someone front ran this stock. You can see the volume there. If you have all of the time in the world you can find these stock before then move 800%.

Still holding SpaceX ($SPCX). It didn’t open at $400 so waiting on it. Options start tomorrow. So it’s going to be full-on amateur hour at the casino. It is hard to value a religion (or a cult.)

We have the Cult of Trump and the Cult of Elon.

How do you put a price on humanity exploring the stars sometime in the year 3050? How do you price a company run by a man that thinks the US will be bankrupt unless we buy his robots?

I see these post all the time. Had you bought Coke in 1895 you’d be really rich today.

You’d also be dead and likely your family doesn’t know where the stock certificates are.

I mean what is techno Jesus really worth? Catholicism has been collecting 10% of its followers income for 1300 years now, Tesla/SpaceX are only 20 years old. Jacob Misiorowski just threw 15 strikes on Friday. Does that mean his rookie card is now worth double?

These are the tough questions you have to figure out in this game. Is the hair-transplant for men poster child and habitual liar worth a premium of 15 strike outs? 20 strike outs? Yes, SpaceX stock is just a baseball card.

A speculative asset.

On another note.

Elon Musk’s net worth is now $1 trillion dollars. This is 3% of US GDP. But, it’s only 2.5% of US debt - so no need to worry.

His net worth is more than the GDP of Taiwan.

Let that sink in. Every electronic device in your house has a part made in Taiwan. The airbags in your car, your wetsuit, all from Taiwan. The only think I have that came from Elon Musk is from Hot Wheels.

The country (Taiwan) so valuable to the world China wants to take it over. I don’t see war ships circling Elon Musk to gain possession.

From a historical perspective this means Elon Musk has surpassed JD Rockefeller. At the time, JD Rockefeller owned what would become Esso/Exxon, Texaco, Marathon Oil, Socony/Mobile, Amoco, Pennzoil, the company that made vaseline, the Solar Refining Company and 30 or so more.

Between 1882 and 1906, Standard Oil paid $550 million ($20 billion inflation adjusted) in dividends. That’s not revenue. That’s dividends.

The companies Standard Oil spun off today earn hundreds of billions of dollars a year and the dude has been dead since 1937. Rockefeller’s zombie is more important to the world’s economy today than Elon Musk is and yet Musk is now worth more (as a fraction of GDP) than all of Standard Oil’s parts.

All because the US has bad tax policies. If the US had been taxing income since the 1980s, young bankers wouldn’t continually chase beach houses by way of scams.

Anyways, just flipping ($IWM) and soon ($QQQ) options. My Calls made between 70 and 150% this morning.

-AJ

This is how math works. I am a billionaire. On paper.

This (not imaginary) company actually generates profit. Literal profit. Not through accounting tricks. I could borrow against my equity position. I could borrow up to $100 billion dollars - in theory.

But, if I claimed that the other 999,999 shares were all worth $100k I might get in trouble if I failed to pay back that loan. And in reality no lender would collateralize against private, unlisted stock shares with only a record of one share being sold.

The public sector provides justification for the price of a share of stock and liquidity should the bank/private credit lender decide it needs to take over my company to recoup their money. The latter is more important though. The value ascribed by the stock market is not as important as the liquidity it provides. Because a lender is going to calculate the value of the equity independent of what the dumb market says.

In reality the shares are likely worth $11.

If my company were to get listed (eventually) a lender would loan me money against my equity. But, not at a 1 to 1 ratio.

Softbank just tried borrow $6 billion against an equity stake in OpenAI of $66 billion and got denied for example. A ratio of 1 to 11.

The only way this math can be made to work out, i.e. the $100 billion I am theoretically worth become an actual $100 billion is if the money supply increases. There is not enough free liquidity for any amount of growth in this business to justify that evaluation.

Let me explain. Through a baby sitting metaphor.

Let’s say the entire economy has a fixed amount of dollars. And a fixed amount of dollars for each job description. And that amount of dollars only allows parents to pay $40/week for a baby sitter. You can hire a baby sitter for $40/hour for one hour or $20/hour for two hours but that is all the money that exists to do this.

If you attempt to spent more than $40 in one week you will have to wait another week to pay them. Because the money does not exist this week.

This situation will slow the economy. You either drive down the wages of baby sitters, prevent parents from going out to restaurants on date night, or cause a cascade effect where the baby sitter is owed money but doesn’t have it yet. Which will cause them to delay spending / making payments / etc.

In order to solve this, the government should just print more money. Not borrow money. Just print it. When a new burping baby is born the government just adds $40/week to the pool of “baby sitting money.”

You see the only way to achieve growth is through monetary expansion. Technically, these occur in unison ideally or close proximity. The government could allocate funds during pregnancy or wait until there is a new baby but the funds have to exist before the baby sitter economies experiences growth.

Economies and economic productivity aren’t measured by bananas. If you want economic activity to go up, you have to make the ruler larger. Money printing is a necessity.

Borrowing to support money printing is not. There is no reason a government ever has to borrow. Because the government can tax. Banks already do this. You want to borrow money to expand your business?

Fine.

The bank gets to manufacture money (fractional reserve banking) and if things go wrong the bank takes your business. This is basically a tax.

This is the way the Federal government should work as well. Money should be printed and if people don’t use that money it should just be taken back via taxes. If you use it poorly then the government should take whatever business you tried to do.

The issue with Elon Musk being a trillionaire is that in order for that to actually happen money has to be created. And the way money is created today is through borrowing. If Elon actually ran a business that earned one trillion dollars it would be different.

What has to happen is the Federal government will borrow money from people like Elon to print money to justify the market determined price of SpaceX/Tesla shares. So that inactive pool of dollars, that is just sitting in banks makes interest, but doesn’t pay any baby sitters, will siphon money from the baby sitter economy. Causing a slog in the economy. Requiring more money printing.

This happens slowly. Billion by billion.

Let me go back to the metaphor.

Let’s say that there is exactly enough money for every family with kids to pay $40/week to a baby sitter. What happens in one person who does not have kids takes $40 out of the economy and shoves it under the mattress. This can be a malicious or an accidental one.

Now, there will be at least one family that can’t utilize a baby sitter or has to go into debt to the baby sitter. So the government has a problem. The baby sitter economy is backing up. What to do?

Well, it could just print another $40. Problem solved. Or it could borrow $40 temporarily from the under one guy’s mattress. And pay a nominal interest fee.

Which just kicks the can down the curb.

You can’t tax Elon’s trillions. Because that money does’t exist. In order to tax that “net worth” the government would first have to create that money.

This is the problem - that pretty much everyone on social media don’t get.

The solution is to change the Fed system so that inactive wealth is taxed and at the same time money is printed/expanded to encourage growth.

-AJ

Measurement requires a ruler. A mutually agreed upon ruler. Let’s say you want to tell your sister how tall your son has gotten. You can tell her your son is 15 TV remotes tall!

But, this only conveys the information correctly if she has the same TV with the same remote as you do. And she doesn’t think you are retarded.

There is a funny joke about a guy measuring his television with his penis but I won’t repeat it. Unless you are Australian.

If truth and consistency is the goal of society everyone would have to buy the same TV with the same remote to measure children by. But, what if truth and consistency is not the goal but perception is? Then the person who buys a TV with the smallest remote can claim their son is a freaking giant. This is where we are today.

So let’s change the size of the remote and look at the current state of financial affairs. What that means is let’s figure out how much the ruler has to change for any of this to make sense.

SpaceX is basically three imaginary businesses that lose money, GrokAI, Twitter and SpaceX and one real business that makes money - Starlink.

Starlink made $4B dollars last year. At 15x earnings that means SpaceX is worth $60B. The average Starlink subscription is ~$80/month. Around 6B people on Earth make more than $80/month but people do need to eat and buy Pokémon cards.

Around 1.5B people make more than $800/month. Now what percentage of those people live in a place with terrestrial internet that costs $80 or less.

Well, nearly all of them. The addressable market here is close to tapped out.

Starlink is already in 160 countries and has a total subscriber base of 12M. There is nothing in the data here that justifies SpaceX being worth $2T. That is a multiple of 500x.

So instead of trying to understand the valuation let’s print money. Because that’s what we do.

What if we increased the global money supply by 500x? By doing this you will be able to change the ruler and justify the evaluation. See how easy that was?

Since 1850, which is the end of slavery and the beginning really of the industrialization of at least western economics GDP has grown from $2T ( 1 SpaceX) to $180T (90 SpaceX.)

Notice our ruler here is just dollars. Which we control the supply of. Very handy. If SpaceX was IPOing in Bahrain this trick wouldn’t work.

GDP is approximately analogous to total dollars that exist something economics call broad money or M2. You can google this and confirm. So in order to multiple the money supply we will end up multiplying GDP.

So the world GDP would have to get to $90Q (quadrillion) dollars to justify SpaceX’s current evaluation. When John Law became the first millionaire in 1720 no one could have imagined anyone having a billion dollars. When Rockfeller became a billionaire in 1916 no one believed a trillionaire was possible.

Well it’s 2026 and the stock market just minted one. And he is nearly as much a douchebag though not as smart as John Law. So we can assume quadrillions is just around the corner. It took two centuries to go from 6 zeros to 9 zeros and 110 years to go from 9 zeroes to 12 zeroes. So I am guessing it will take 60 years to get to 15 zeroes.

I don’t think governments and central banks around the world are going to devalue our children’s lives by that much that fast. Plus, people aren’t having children at the same rate as the previous centuries which explains why we need robots.

This is obviously a joke don’t pull your pants down and measure your TV. Though someone reading this already has done this before I am sure. The market and economy are going to implode at some point.

I am just explaining an alternative narrative about the powers to be want to make happen. Money is going to be printed.

Data centers are being built everywhere even stupid places like in the ocean and in space. This is going to require massive amounts of money printing. Not just in the US. But, everywhere. How fast it gets printed and whether or not economic activity/productivity follows are the unknowns.

And the people who have non-zero net worth are going to get even richer and people with zero net worth aren’t. Because 500x0 is still zero.

I am currently holding calls because I trust that Trump is not going to do something stupid and risk Iran blowing up a jet or helicopter on his birf-day party tomorrow.

Then I will go back to what I have been doing all year. Buying Puts on any market strength.

Eventually, people are going to realize money is just a ruler and we can change it any time we want to. In the future, a new generation can just zero it out and start over if they want - which I suspect they will want to. For those of you who thought the market would have crashed already go back and re-read this.

I posted a bunch of data and analysis in chat today on returns for various alerts. You should read it.

-AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

Last week, SpaceX announced that Alphabet's ($GOOGL) Google will pay $920 million per month to rent 110,000 Nvidia ($NVDA) GPUs, as well as CPUs, memory and other components from October 2026 through June 2029, with computing capacity beginning to ramp in September 2026. This agreement can be canceled for any reason as long as either party give 90 days notice or can be canceled by Google if SpaceX fails to “deliver access to the committed amount of GPUs by September 30, 2026.”

I thought there was a backlog of GPUs and memory and other other component required to build a datacenter? Maybe I missed the memo about this supply chain backup having been cleared. I do get a lot of emails so I probably did miss it. If there was a two quarter backlog, carry the one add banana, that would mean SpaceX can’t get all of that by September.

SpaceX’s IPO is Friday, June 12th. Ninety days from June 12th is September 10th. The terms of this deal really only commit Google to potentially having to pay two weeks of rental costs “at a reduced rate” for the month of September. And SpaceX’s first earnings call will be in September.

But, that isn’t what I have questions about. I fully understand how the IPO escalator to nowhere goes. What I have questions about is this slide:

The phrase “deployable liquid radiators” is not something you normally read. Let alone read three times in a graphic. Twice in the same beaded list.

Is it one radiator… or multiple? Who knows? not whoever threw this together.

First question, why would this need to be deployable? Wouldn’t that just require an unnecessary mechanical system that would be used once and then just sit there? Is there really ever a situation where you would un-deploy the radiators? Are you really designing a system with completely unnecessary single-use components?

Second, isn’t the whole point of putting a data center in space that you don’t need to use a liquid? Space data centers were supposed to use the vacuum of space as a radiator heat sink. Right? RIGHT? I can fully explain why the idea of using the vacuum of space is impractical and stupid but I don’t have to because it says, in triplicate, liquid.

Wate is the best liquid for this sort of thing or a water/glycol mixture. So I am sure they mean water. So the new plan is to not use the vacuum of space but to carry water up to space and then build a data center in space that is cooled with water and have all the same issues as you would on the ground. Only, in space.

Third, where are the pumps? If you are going to use a liquid you will need pumps. This seems like a pretty important detail and another mechanical part. And mechanical parts, you know, break.

Elon Musk’s companies are the public sector equivalent of a Nigerian Prince scam. There are enough mistakes and obvious errors/inconsistencies/illogicities (I made that word up just for fun) that a rational, educated, intelligent person isn’t going to fall for it.

Which is the intent I think.

SpaceX wants to find the people who will buy the IPO and hold the stock forever so that everyone who bought before the IPO can get out. Lemmings. The video game. Not the cute little intelligent animal the director of the Wild Kingdom threw off a mountainside.

The video game. Where you’d blow up a few little guys and order some other little guys to build stairs so people could escape. I used to love that game.

The target buyers of this IPO are the techno equivalent of being a gold/silver bug. People “stack” silver and gold and then die and their kids sell the gold if they can figure out the combination to the safe. There are plenty of people out there that never sold there marijuana dispensary shares or there solar-water tower shares.

We live in a reality where an likely AI-generated marketing slide can fully justify a $75 billion dollar IPO. Kind of nifty actually.

Let’s hope the stock hits $400 on Friday. GoPro hit $100 after its IPO. It hasn’t done so well since but it did hit $100 which was up 4x from the $24 listing price.

I am very curious what is the next new-new thing? So far humanity has not reached self driving, not made a hyper-loop, not generate power from solar roof tops, not replaced long-haul trucks with electric ones, not reached AGI, not made it to Mars, or even orbit yet, there is no fleet of robotaxis and there is no robot in my house folding my laundry.

SpaceX is partnering with a (wait for it) solar company out of California called Ambrosia Energy which I am just going to call Solar City 2.0 (space edition.)

So I guess the new-new idea is just to go back to the original new-new idea that failed already. Only this time the solar roof will be in space.

-AJ

MACRO: PPI is tomorrow!

June 3: Google issued equity. Cathie Wood and Berkshire Hathaway participated in the offering. This is the exact opposite of buying back equity. Share buybacks have been providing buoyancy to the market. I read this as a harbinger of what is to come and pulled back even more cash.

June 4: SPGlobal denied SpaceX’s request to change the IPO seasoning period to 6 months from 12 months. Wall Street bank were relying on the forced buying of the S&P ecosystem of ETFs to drive the price of stock up. Now, the banks have to provide buoyancy. Luckily for them, retail is likely to short and get trapped in a low liquidity environment for a few days since those choosing to buy the pre-IPO allotment are locked in for 30 days.

June 5: May Non-farm Payroll data came in at 172k over the expected 85k. This includes temporary payroll changes due to the World Cup. My personal forecast (and I totally forgot about World Cup) was 105k. Considering how much time I spend shopping for World Cup tickets this was a dumb miss on my part. And no, I haven’t bought tickets yet. I think they will come down a lot still.

The addition 70k hospitality jobs puts the data inline with my expectations but not inline with the overall market expectations. I guess.

June 5: Various reports started to circulate that the SpaceX IPO was lowering the minimum account size required to participate. I can personally confirm we have been approached about getting an allotment. We never asked to be included here.

If this is the most desirable IPO in history banks would be cold calling to try and sell shares the Friday before the IPO.

Nope.

June 5: The market fell off a cliff. And the VIX moved up 40%.

It is hard to say what specifically people were most worried about. But, it is easy to see why there was no bounce on the day. There is far too much uncertainty in the health of the financial and capital market system. It is possible the rotation out of tech was due to people setting up to buy SpaceX now that there won’t be ETF demand to drive up the price. It’s also possible that people realize the ship is sinking.

The ship being the entire public sector. But the economy seems fine. At least the pizza economy

A couple local pizza places were recently featured on Dave Portnoy’s top pizza list (there is such a thing apparently) and there has been a line around the block at both establishments since so it’s not like people are suffering financially.

It’s hard to say.

The difference between your standard tech IP and SpaceX is Elon Musk has tied up SpaceX’s float. He is the master manipulator and he is fully embracing the idea of Robert Kiyosaki and Sharon Lechter. If you owe the bank a billion dollars it’s the banks problem.

Cerebras which went IPO in May is down from $350 to $200. Which is typical for tech IPOs. They tend to be down 50+% in the first year.

For Cerebras, everyone that can dump, is dumping whereas everyone is buying Forgent Power Systems which is an AI shovel seller. Will people consider SpaceX a space-shovel seller or an AI company or a tech company? I do suspect bankers at Goldman and Morgan Stanley will be wearing space-diapers this week though.

Oh and lest we forget, Israel is still bombing Lebanon. Can’t forget that. But, one good thing is fertilizer prices have also crashes so bagels will still be cheap next year. And China is still closed to imports so demand destruction is still mitigating the worst of the damage. So far.

And… and… AND! Next week, just to make things more dicey, on Wednesday CPI will be released and then on June 12, SpaceX goes IPO or will have some unplanned spontaneous disassembly event.

Currently, holding a small IWM Call trade in case Trump pumps the market and then I will go back to rolling IWM Puts on strength. Same strategy I’ve been running all year.

-AJ

This version of the App is still in local testing. I hope to have it online early next year for everyone. I dumped a pdf of all of these in chat.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

Nothing new has happened on the ((Us vs. ((Israel) vs. Lebanon) vs. Iran)) conflict. Trump is still in denial that he can salvage some sort of face. He can’t.

Trump being elected saved him from potentially going to prison. Netanyahu knows as long as there is still a way his trial will be delayed. Just follow the rig report.

You can see that when the conflict began in February US oil producers were in disbelief the price of oil would stay up long enough to make pumping more worth their while. Lately, they have change their minds on this. This leads to a strange situation for traders. Because, yes we are running out of oil so the price should go up. But, also yes we are starting to produce more oil so the price should go down.

As Buffet would say, this goes on the too hard pile.

In other Trump news he stated he had 4.8% body fat. So at least we have the fitness leader on Earth. It’s quite amazing someone can live off of McDonald’s Happy Meals and be so thin.

Microstrategy was forced to dump bitcoin. This is now an inertial problem for both Saylor and HODLERS. The only buyer of bitcoin in the last 6 months was Saylor. As Saylor is forced to sell the price will fall and he will be forced to sell more.

When the miners left to become hyperscalers there was no future. I think everyone knew this but Saylor.

This inertial trade is something setting up in the Korean, Japanese and US markets as well. Fewer and fewer people are in a fewer number of positions and using more and more leverage.

If gains are cocaine. Leverage is crack. If people keep chasing gains with leverage eventually these markets are going to unwind that leverage in spectacular fashion. A rapid unplanned spontaneous disassembling.

Unfortunately, when this happens it’s going to hurt everyone.

MICRO:

Berkshire bought more Google (NASDAG:GOOGL.) This feels more like a duct tape trade. Can’t exit so you buy more to try and shore up the foundation underlying your existing position.

Biotechs had a fun day yesterday after-hours which led to a fall out today.

All the crowded-by-retail biotech trades imploded. I am a very taciturn person but I was so worried about the retail manipulation on Abivax (NASDAQ:$ABVX) I wrote four substacks on it after we exited last year. 1 2 3 4

Celcuity (NASDAQ:$CELC) dumped on a sell-the-news type of move. There is less merit to this sell off. But, it still expensive relative to pretty much every biotech listed in the US. Would you rather buy a stock up 10x or find the next one that hasn’t run yet? Most sophisticated investors will do the latter.

And lastly, Fulcrum Therapeutics (NASDAQ:$FULC) dumped. In this case it just fell through the channel. So at some point we will be buying this one again. But, at $2.95 (where it is sitting as I write) it still is not attractive.

The reason we show 5x the chart low is that is typically a good place to get off the train. Especially if you bought below the channel the last time and got that 5x return. And it’s exactly where you should have gotten off this train.

One of the few biotech’s not getting dragged down today, Biovie (NADSAQ$:$BIVI) is up 16% today. This tripped ∆Liquidity and ACC/Con recently. Looks like a run into fund raising. Still holding but have an ask set already on this one. There is no conviction here. Just a mechanical trade.

This is a company trying to cure everything which usually means it’s just a share seller.

Ebola is having a party in West Africa again. I only found one potential play, Traws Pharma (NASDAQ:$TRAW.) They issued a PR on Ebola last week which did nothing for the stock. Like BioVie they still are working on COVID as well. So they too are chasers.

In July the company has a vote to authorize warrant conversions from the April offering. One to watch. No position on this one. Timing these stocks is not something I am good at. But, it looks like someone front ran this.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

The VIX fell under 16. I hope it will hit 13 next week. I still expect happy cow market until SpaceX et al IPO so fingers crossed. All about that hedge as Meghan Trainor would say.

Texas drillers are slowly coming on line. A few rigs are being added every week as rig owners are beginning to see that the US vs. Iran water party isn’t likely to end anytime soon and even if it does it will take 6-9 months to clear the Strait from any mines.

Assuming there are actually mines in the Strait which I am still not sure I believe.

The US is down 100+ rigs on 2025 so there is a lot of supply that can be turned on. All the panic is ignoring this reality.

MICRO:

A lot of biotechs changed convexity recently. I’ve added a handy-dandy curve fit for you. I don’t know what this means but I hope it means something good. Typically, when a basket of stocks that are unrelated curl up at the same time it means something.

Most of the biotech sector caught a bid like the rest of the market after the oil shock draw-down.

The biggest winner of the stocks we own coming out of this is Decoy Therapeutics which has returned 68% on the bounce followed by Fate Therapeutics which bounced back 50% so far.

You can see both of those bounces were very strong. Let’s hope this continues.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

And here is recent market history.

There are a couple things that need to be noted. First of all we have market circuit breakers now. So the big October 1929 crash can not happen anymore. So just skip over that huge drop month. Second it is unlikely we are going to enter a dustbowl as we did in the 1930s and the US now produces its own oil. And there is no Hitler in Europe. Everyone has McDonald’s now. So the extraneous market factors are not the same.

And most importantly, prior to 1981 or so there weren’t share buybacks. Today, there are lots of those.

One thing to notice is the “crash” really wasn’t abrupt in any former case. The wheels wobbled, steadied, wobbled, steadied, wobbled some more and then fell off. The period of wobbling and steadying took a very long time. The reason is it takes a long time for enough people to change their mind to push the entire market in the other direction.

There was amble opportunity to recover from an initial hit and get off if you didn’t panic and weren’t running leverage.

That is really the key to surviving any crash. Not panicking. And not being caught running leverage UNLESS you are short. Then congrats on your new island.

And then, you have to be one of the first to realize it’s time to get off, or go short.

I won’t be trying to time a crash unless there is something very obvious. Like Tariffs were last year and Iran was this year. And most likely there will be something very, very obvious. More on this in a second.

I wasn’t alive in 1928 but in 2000 the pin that pricked the bubble was the court ruling that Microsoft was a monopoly in 2000. The Fed had already started raising interest rates prior to this ruling.

Twice.

But, that ruling is what caused the greatest uncertainty. The market was already weak.

So watch for any regulatory actions against AI and watch for Fed policy changes (which I think everyone is doing already.)

And watch the Superbowl.

In 2000, there were 20+ ads from dotcom companies. Right before the NFT market imploded there were numerous Superbowl ads from those companies. In 2000, pets.com, monster.com, hot-jobs.com, computer.com, lastminutetravel.com, onmoney.com, ourbeginnings.com… all paid to advertise on the Superbowl. That is a pretty obvious sign of stupidity. Don’t you think?

This past Superbowl 15 ads were AI generated including a Vodka ad. There wasn’t an add for mypersonallifecoach.ai.

We aren’t there yet.

-AJ

First, in order to have human-level intelligence an LLM has to be able to ask the question “What If?” Humans have taught apes how to use sign language but in 40 years of doing this no ape has ever formulated a question to the researchers. How you use the “What If?” question is a sign of higher human-level intelligence as well. It is the challenge that expands the domain of existing knowledge.

Let me give you an example.

Now an smart human would clarify at each step without being prompted. If you have children you understand this. When children learn something they always come back and ask questions when they get stuck. Or in a situation they think they may be making a mistake.

Which is often when you make assumptions and children figure this out very young.

But, the “What If?” question not being asked in this case is acceptable. Only a very smart person would think to clarify here. Only a smart person would go through the 1945 text and see there were references to earlier texts in it.

This seems impressive. Especially because it continually prompts you to use more tokens. That prompt-induction feels very human but is this a sign of human-level intelligence?

Let’s look at a simpler and more directly expository one. A series of questions that an elementary school child would not need to ask questions to answer.

And a bird would have no problem solving this problem either. Try it at home.

Any sort of animal-level intelligence or higher would not require additional information to understand you just move the Post-It out of the way.

-AJ

Black Diamond Therapeutics is announcing data today at 5:30pm. We have a very, very tiny position left in this. Not a whole lot of risk in this chart but we sold late last year and never bought back.

Best of luck!

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

Seriously, this is the only account Gravity Analytica Capital or Gravity Analytica LLC uses. I do have a personal Substack which no one knows about. Not even my mom.

MACRO:

Not much has changed. PPI came in hot. FOMC meeting noted that rate cuts would be the course of action if the Iran situation resolved. Much the same.

The economy is still chugging along buoyed by the top income brackets.

MICRO:

The PPI did crush biotechs and microcaps though the reaction was delayed a bit. This caused me to hesitate and I got caught unhedged. Which was unfortunate.

But, NVidia beat so all’s well that something, something.

SpaceX filed for its IPO today officially. The company lost $4B dollars. Check your pockets. And OpenAI is rushing to get to the exit as fast as possible now as well that the lawsuit has settled.

I don’t see any reason why my prediction from a few weeks ago needs to be updated.

The music has stopped for these companies. Without falling interest rates they have no future other than to go public. They don’t/can’t make profit. They can’t borrow and they can’t roll bonds out six months.

This is where the tech economy was in late 1997/1998 so advancing along. But, I still think Burry et all are too early.

I started rebuying Sensei and ProMIS Neurosciences yesterday. I am more aggressively buying back PMS. We are sitting on free shares of these so I can be a little early. I will be adding to these over the next few days/weeks. However long it takes. There are a few more stocks I flipped out of weeks/months ago that I am targeting re-entries in as well.

I am also sitting on calls which I will likely close on any decent move this week.

A bunch of stocks we own should have data incoming soon. Will post to Twitter as I rotate out or flip.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

When an AI translates cat from English to French or from English to a generated image of a cat the program is operating in a very dense (vector) space.

Visually with blue. Point your finger in this circle. You are now an LLM.

No matter where you point to in that circle the answer will likely exist. And if you happen to hit a point in (vector) space where there is no answer the locus of points nearest will be related so a guess will likely be accurate enough. Let’s say Christopher Nolan’s new movie events the phrase scratch-tastic. Most likely the meaning of that world will be online soon and you just need to refresh the browser.

This works no matter how complicated a string of words is too. The space with which the transformation is happening is very dense. There is no possibility of you asking What is the French word for X? and the correct answer is an elephant wearing a towel falls from the sky.

The reason is because humans defined English and French. Humans defined what is and is not a cat. But, outside of languages, English, French, the visual language of color, shape, texture, Python, C++, mathematics, etc. Nothing in our world is a dense (vector) space because we didn’t define the real world. To stretch the analogy here to the point a mathematician would have an aneurism that space where you are pointing with your finger isn’t flat either. There is a chance where you put leads to an elephant sitting on your head.

For example, what if you wanted to map biology to medicine. These are very close together in the card catalog.

Visually with green.

Now, this may appear hyperbolic. But, it isn’t. Humans know very, very little about the biology and how if affects our health and most of what we know is superficial. If you plug Shakespeare’s entire works in English into a program you can get back the French version but if you plug a DNA molecule into a program you can’t get out prostate cancer at 45.

And, even if you could how would you predict mutations that might occur in that person carrying that DNA’s cells?

Not only is the (vector) space sparse but it is infinitely more complicated - ie it isn’t flat. There is a parachuting elephant probability.

If you were to ask a question and point to a space where we do have the nearest neighbors defined in one dimension we don’t know how wrong we would be in any other dimension. So not only will the answer likely be wrong. It will likely be dangerously wrong. Time consumingly wrong. No one said chocolate is good. Peanut butter is good. We should mix these. Someone had to accidentally walk in front of a microwave ray with a candy bar to figure this out.

For example in medicine, does gut biome change that age from 45 to 55? We don’t have a clue. That is a question in the blank space of human knowledge. The fact is the blank space i.e. the stuff we don’t know is vastly underestimated by the people selling AI to the masses.

Humans didn’t define chemistry, physics, biology, etc. And we can’t explain any of it outside of weak probabilistic representations or in a very limited capacity based on generalization.

If you want to understand just how far we have to generalize picture the trajectory of a cow. In order to figure out where the cow will fly off to physicists consider the cow to be a point.

This works for ballistics of a cow. But, give the cow, a cow sized kite with some flexible textile and we have no idea where it’s going to go. We can model it. We can animate it. And it will look accurate but until we can never be sure where Bessy is really going to end up.

This current AI concept doesn’t work for cancer. Or weather. Or climate change. Or flying cows. In fact, it is replacing systems and programs that are much more accurate.

Even the next generation concepts which are going to try and constrain AI with actual physical modeling aren’t going to get much farther for thermodynamic reasons. That means there isn’t enough energy to handle the calculations necessary to do the most basic things.

Taking all whole corpus of human knowledge and putting it somewhere is great. We did that. It’s called the internet. Giving the internet a cocky, over confident librarian that removes all need for the questioner to search and find the answer is fucking dumb.

Removing the ability for the librarian to say “I don’t know" meaning humans don’t know is a calamity.

OpenAI, Anthropic and the like are all run by people who are used to the synthetic digital world. To them everything, to quote Elon Musk, is “really easy.” And, nothing is really easy in the real world. I doubt anyone of them have ever say down on the grass and tried to find a four leave clover. Which is something every really needs to do once in their life just to understand how different ever three leaf clover leave really is.

We are wasting resources and we are destroying humanities ability to think at the same time. So we are lighting the Earth of fire and hastening Idiocracy at the same time.

This AI push is the greatest folly in human history. It appeals to only people who see dollar signs. But, it did make me a nice trash pile desk image.

So there’s that.

If you do the math on what the average temperature on Earth will be after humans burn all the known fossil fuel reserves it’s pretty terrifying.

The Earth will be around 10°C-15°C warmer. If you don’t believe me ask ChatGPT. I am sure it can do the math.

That means the average temperature on Earth will go from 15°C to 25°C (59°F to 77°F.) This means most of the land on Earth will exceed the wet bulb temperature during the day.

So going outside for any extended period of time will be fatal. You will drown as the coolest surface, the surface where humidity will condense, will be inside your lungs.

It means the time of mammals will end. Agriculture will end. And dipshits today are installing jet turbine engines to power data centers.

This is all 250-400 years into the future though.

I don’t think AI is a bubble. I think humanity is a bubble and AI popped it.

-AJ

PPI scorched and the Russell opened green.

What the market is reacting too is the idea that the market needs “free money” specifically it needs the Fed’s money printer. What a lot of people don’t realize is the economy is chugging along right now anyways. The market doesn’t need “free money” when it’s got gambling money in it.

But market participants are reacting in very predictable ways because of the market memory. Obvious PUT trade setup on open. Less obvious Call trade after the initial reaction.

Still waiting on SpaceX IPO and share repurchases to stop. WIX got crushed today in part because they are buying back shares.

MICRO:

Lots of stuff moved today. Sellas Life Sciences moved after announcing the 78th patient died. If you don’t follow biotechs for cancer trials the “events” that are counted are deaths. So since February 2020, 78 out of the required 80 people have died. We have no position in this stock and I give it a 4% chance the trial shows significance. It did trip ACC and takeoff so there was a signal (golden diamond.) But, we did not enter. The funds and investment banks involved in this we just avoid.

Companies often take a molecule known to be safe and just throw at the wall and see what disease it sticks to. This is one of those cases. Maybe they will get lucky. But, most likely SLS has just run a very long trial and sold $400mm in shares.

C4 Therapeutics announced earnings and that they received a milestone payment. We (the family) and I personally own quite a lot of this stock. Again, gold diamond → go up.

Whitehawk Therapeutics raised capital today privately. Mostly unregistered warrants. Again gold diamond → go up. We own a lot of this one as well.

And finally, something different Mainz Biomed NV err Quantum Cyber NV (sorry) announced it has drones in March and today announced some bullshit. It too tripped ACC/Consolidation recently and was in an FST. Maybe surprisingly (or not) we did own this this morning but sold this afternoon. This could easily make 1000% or just die forever.

Does this look like a place that is making defense drones?

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

There goes wheat!

As I explained in April, wheat doesn’t like cold. And, no plants like to go from cold to drought conditions. The Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures limited up today on a report that the wheat harvest will be the weakest since the 1970s.

This is going to be a much bigger problem than people realize.

CPI came in slightly hot. The market dropped on a low bid pressure. I waited patiently and bought calls mid day. Really a no brainer trade.

You don’t have to figure things out beforehand. Just wait for the market to come to you.

Dr. Marty Makary,the 27th FDA Commissioner and by far the dumbest one ever is gone. He resigned as opposed to be being defenestrated out of the building which would have been more apropos . This bodes well for various drug companies notably UniQure (NASDAQ:$QURE) which we sold the spike and bought October-December Calls on the dip back into the bands. No plan on selling any time soon. These full retracement trades to the channel are also no brainers as well.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

I don’t know whether a person was put into bondage invented religion to help them understand and come to terms with their position or if someone invented religion as a justification to put someone in bondage.

But, what I do know is religion and slavery are two sides of the same coin. A coin humanity has been minting for thousands of years.

Hellenism, Roman Polytheism, Catholicism, Capitalism…

Chattel slavery (x2), fire and brimstone servitude, debt slavery.

What is happening now with AI is just another minting of the same coin. Take Jensen’s latest statements that his $500k/year engineers need to be spending $250k in tokens. The most intelligent and educated people on Earth are now slaves to a system that is functionally no more than a reddit user on a power trip.

Very shortly (until the workers revolt) you will either be a slave to an angry text-based TikTok or find yourself a more and more a slave to debt.

This is reality.

AI isn’t going to solve climate change or disease. It can’t. But, it will solve the problem of Free Will which has for so long hurt profits.

Now, I fully am aware that money is just a bullshit concept we use to make our lives simpler and that we can print as much of it as we need. But, no one else seems to understand this.

So someone is going to suffer a lot. And it might be us this time. Not our future selves not our children.

But, who knows right?

Burning coal didn’t cause a generation to die of black lung, right? Industrial revolutions never do more harm than good, right?

Asbestos didn’t cause cancer. CFCs didn’t cause cancer, right.

And these things didn’t directly modify the brain like social media and LLMs do.

MACRO:

The Trump Administration is trying to cut the gas tax while releasing over 1 million barrels of oil from the SPR every day. Iran is still i-running the Strait of Hormuz.

China has cut exports. If this were a came of chess the US has lost all its higher rank and and China has three queens.

Epstein files? Am I right? The longer this goes on the more we forget about it.

CPI is tomorrow. PPI is tomorrow. If the market reacts incorrectly I will make a trade.

MICRO:

Been slow of late but finally something moved. And it’s one of our largest positions. MacroGenics is up 25% after-hours and a little over 100% since we bought it. We started buying when BOB tripped and added all the way through ACC. It hasn’t left the channel, yet.

Still holding. Don’t plan on selling for awhile.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

Tenax Therapeutics is one of the highest scoring speculative biotech stocks out there right now (it’s tied for 3rd place - solid Bronze Medal,) assuming Fluffy here is actually doing what it is supposed to do.

Since this company appears to be one of fintwit’s favorites here is a full report for anyone/everyone to eviscerate. If there are any errors let me know.

The prompt that generates these reports is just short of Wuthering Heights already but if there are errors I can just add a few new chapters. Not everything on a GA chart is in the report and the gold diamond (ACC/Consolidation) Fluffy turned into a golden dotted line for some reason.

We own this stock, though I don’t remember why I bought it other than it tripped ACC/Consolidation earlier in the year.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.

Part I. Part II. Part III.

Rumor is they have cleared the licensing issue which would have blocked any merger attempts so probably a good time to revisit.

I figured this crowded trade is a good place to show off the new GA Report Agent I’ve been working on for weeks because I am tired of manually doing BEST/BETTER/GOOD/AVOID analysis. I am trying to automate myself out of a job so I can retire (for the second time) this year.

Though this company is still French. And still has to get over French Authorities - which is a considerable hurdle yet. I cover this difficultly in one of the previous posts.

Getting straight to it as of today, Abivax scores a 6. This is a score relative to the entire biotech universe. It is potentially out of 10 but so far there are no 10s.

Here is how the Agent (I think Fluffy is a good name for an Agent) arrived at that score. As you can see the drug and company score highly. What doesn’t score highly is the potential reward from here.

The stock is already up significantly. And the relative return potential from here is not as good as many other biotechs that haven’t already run 1300%.

A 6 is still higher than a significant percentage of biotech stocks (I don’t have the data yet to tell that percentage yet.)

But, so far the highest scoring biotech just gets an 8 out of 10. There apparently is no free lunch right now.

There is much more to this report. We still don’t have a position and sold the initial spike a long time ago.

— AJ

Event Horizon Tools

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Our website has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material contained on this page is intended for informational purposes only. GravityAnalytica.com is wholly-owned by Gravity Analytica, LLC. Our website is not an offer nor recommendation to buy or sell any security. We hold no investment licenses and are thus neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The content of our website and/or newsletter is not provided to any individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. While all information is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by us to be accurate. Individuals should assume that all information contained on our website is not trustworthy unless verified by their own independent research. Also, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will likely be differences between the any predictions and actual results. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making any investment decision. Be extremely careful, investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may likely lose some or all of the investment. We reserve the right to buy or sell shares of any company mentioned on our website or in our newsletter at any time. We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

The company or individuals affiliated may hold positions or may enter into, or exit, positions on any equities at any time. This website and materials found on this website, or in any communication, are meant for individuals of eighteen (18) years of age or older and are not suitable for younger audiences. Materials and information provided on this website and in any communications with or from Gravity Analytica LLC, it’s employees or affiliates, are for personal education use by subscribers and may be not be used in any regard in competition with this website or any other product or service offered by Gravity Analytica LLC. Past results do not predict future returns. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE TERMS OF THIS DISCLAIMER, PLEASE EXIT THIS SITE IMMEDIATELY. PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT YOUR CONTINUED USE OF THIS SITE OR THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN SHALL INDICATE YOUR CONSENT AND AGREEMENT TO THESE TERMS.