10x Returns
Here is some fun math. Below are the returns I have achieved in the US Investing Championship through today. These are independently verified from account brokerage statements.
2023 Returns - 73.2%
2024 Returns - 93.2%
2025 Returns - 75.2% (~$788k gain)
2026 Returns (so far as of writing this) - 50% (~$850k gain)
If I hit 70.5% this year, the four consecutive years will have a compounded return was 1000+%.
An account ten bagger.
Nifty.
That was not planned. Or even a goal for this account.
In comparison, RenTech has exceeded 70% (before fees) over a four year period once and only once in its entire history and it employs hundreds of PhDs. And RenTech returned (before fees) around ~45% each year over the same period of 2023-2026 based on what has been published since this chart.
If I had known this I might have set my target higher than 70%. I chose 70% somewhat arbitrarily. It is just what Wikipedia said Ken Griffin made. And both RenTech and Griffin used leverage.
I do not.
Over that stretch RenTech return 1900% which would be a running 111% yearly return. I don’t know if I can do that or not. Last year someone in chat returned 2100% in a single year. So I know the model can produce much higher returns.
Just not sure I can in an account this size.
As far as I know, there is no other documented return of more than 70% for four consecutive years other than RenTech. And neither Gemini or ChatGPT know either. Buffett returned 75% once.
What this means is the competition account is ahead of the test account! That account is up ~650% and I started it in July of 2022 so it had a 6 month head start.
I guess me worrying about monthly reporting goals was a good thing for returns? I am not sure I like that result actually. That means a constraint improved performance which would invalidate an economic theory. Oops.
Actually, it is up more because I hedge in the competition account with options (and I am quite a good hedger) and the test account doesn’t have access to options. But, still I am hedging because I am trying to meet yearly goals.
I still don’t like this result.
— AJ