Octagon Capital 13F
We don’t pay too much attention to hedge funds quarterly activity as it is a delayed metric. But, I am very curious in this biotech hellscape market if funds have began to shift their entry points lower.
This is just a randomly chosen fund, Octagon Capital. I suspect the positions they sold should be near FSTs or high risk events and are well above the channel. And the positions they have added or entered this quarter to be green and below the channel with lower risk profiles.
I am posting today’s charts with a 180 day scale to overlap the relevant quarter.
Closed: $APLS, $AVBP, $BBIO, $CNTA, $DYN, $HLXB, $INSM
Dyne Therapeutics ($DYN) bounced nicely off the channel after their 1QT sale.
Helix Acquisition ($HLXB) is a SPAC so not charting that one as it was essentially an interest play for them.
Insmed ($INSM) seems well played as all the significant risk is upcoming.
All sales make logical sense.
Decreased: $APGE, $COGT, $DNTH, $GOSS, $KALV, $MRUS, $NGNE, $NUVB, $OCUL, $PHVS, $RGLS, $SRRK, $TSHA, $VRNA, $VRDN
I am going to skip ahead you can see the pattern is consistent.
Increased: $CATX, $CNTA, $CRBP, $ERAS, $KALV, $LIFE, $MNMD, $NUVB, $SNDX, $TRML,
As expected the companies Octagon added were more likely to be in the channel. EM of EM channel stands for Entry Model.
Since we don’t know (too lazy to look) what the terms of any deals were it is possible stocks for stocks like Centessa, Octagon might have a lower cost or are carrying free warrants, etc. But, this purchase was above the channel.
Corbus had a green catalyst prior to an FST which is usually a good entry. Smart play by Octagon here.
They appeared to have bought just outside the channel on KalVista.
Syndax looks like a mistake as the stock is just now approaching the channel, but again I didn’t look up the deal terms.
As always, if you think there are spelling errors update your dictionary to the latest version. Happy speculation!
— AJ
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