Oil is flowing. Maybe? Trump seems disinterested in continuing this and the market doesn’t seem to care for the moment since demand destruction has taken price down BUT the US will run out of oil pretty soon.
We still have reserves but physically drawing down the reserves stops before the numerical volume in the reserve. You can’t pump without full pressure. You just burb.
Elon Musk has not invented a worm hole that connects the Middle East to the Gulf of America so it is going to take 4-6 weeks before any oil on tankers to get here.
The Dow is at all time highs. And I expect Mr Market to keep it all time highs tomorrow so that Trump can spend 20 minutes talking about how great he is.
After that who knows?
We have unemployment data tomorrow and then CPI on the 14th.
SOXX 0.00%↑ is dumping. This reminds me so much of RedHat vs Ubuntu in 2000. There are just too many open source and Chinese models coming in play here.
I am not trying to time this trade. It could be next week or in 2027. When swaps start to spike I will pay attention.
…
I don’t have much. My free time has been focussed on soccer.
I have hedged for the reasons stated above. I stacked PUTS from 7/24 through 8/21 against QQQ 0.00%↑ and IWM 0.00%↑.
— AJ
Event Horizon Tools
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