What Happened This Week?
Sunday June 7, 2026
MACRO:
June 3: Google issued equity. Cathie Wood and Berkshire Hathaway participated in the offering. This is the exact opposite of buying back equity. Share buybacks have been providing buoyancy to the market. I read this as a harbinger of what is to come and pulled back even more cash.
June 4: SPGlobal denied SpaceX’s request to change the IPO seasoning period to 6 months from 12 months. Wall Street bank were relying on the forced buying of the S&P ecosystem of ETFs to drive the price of SPCX 0.00%↑stock up. Now, the banks have to provide buoyancy. Luckily for them, retail is likely to short and get trapped in a low liquidity environment for a few days since those choosing to buy the pre-IPO allotment are locked in for 30 days.
June 5: May Non-farm Payroll data came in at 172k over the expected 85k. This includes temporary payroll changes due to the World Cup. My personal forecast (and I totally forgot about World Cup) was 105k. Considering how much time I spend shopping for World Cup tickets this was a dumb miss on my part. And no, I haven’t bought tickets yet. I think they will come down a lot still.
The addition 70k hospitality jobs puts the data inline with my expectations but not inline with the overall market expectations. I guess.
June 5: Various reports started to circulate that the SpaceX IPO was lowering the minimum account size required to participate. I can personally confirm we have been approached about getting an allotment. We never asked to be included here.
If this is the most desirable IPO in history banks would be cold calling to try and sell shares the Friday before the IPO.
Nope.
June 5: The market fell off a cliff. And the VIX moved up 40%.
It is hard to say what specifically people were most worried about. But, it is easy to see why there was no bounce on the day. There is far too much uncertainty in the health of the financial and capital market system. It is possible the rotation out of tech was due to people setting up to buy SpaceX now that there won’t be ETF demand to drive up the price. It’s also possible that people realize the ship is sinking.
The ship being the entire public sector. But the economy seems fine. At least the pizza economy
A couple local pizza places were recently featured on Dave Portnoy’s top pizza list (there is such a thing apparently) and there has been a line around the block at both establishments since so it’s not like people are suffering financially.
It’s hard to say.
The difference between your standard tech IP and SpaceX is Elon Musk has tied up SpaceX’s float. He is the master manipulator and he is fully embracing the idea of Robert Kiyosaki and Sharon Lechter. If you owe the bank a billion dollars it’s the banks problem.
Cerebras which went IPO in May is down from $350 to $200. Which is typical for tech IPOs. They tend to be down 50+% in the first year.
For Cerebras, everyone that can dump, is dumping whereas everyone is buying Forgent Power Systems which is an AI shovel seller. Will people consider SpaceX a space-shovel seller or an AI company or a tech company? I do suspect bankers at Goldman and Morgan Stanley will be wearing space-diapers this week though.
Oh and lest we forget, Israel is still bombing Lebanon. Can’t forget that. But, one good thing is fertilizer prices have also crashes so bagels will still be cheap next year. And China is still closed to imports so demand destruction is still mitigating the worst of the damage. So far.
And… and… AND! Next week, just to make things more dicey, on Wednesday CPI will be released and then on June 12, SpaceX goes IPO or will have some unplanned spontaneous disassembly event.
Currently, holding a small IWM Call trade in case Trump pumps the market and then I will go back to rolling IWM Puts on strength. Same strategy I’ve been running all year.
-AJ