There really is no solution for the Iran situation that will fit together with Trump’s ego.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are 100+k highly focussed religious zealots. Iran isn’t Venezuela. So can’t send special forces here.
Technically, blockading a country is an act of war but Congress hasn’t declared war. US military leaders are not dumb. They understand they can be held accountable here. The Administration already has fired Generals for refusing to act illegally. How many levels of military leadership would have to be fired before you get to a person who is willing to break the law?
The moderate “leaders” of Iran, the ones the US has been talking to, are not in control of the IRGC which means they aren’t in control of the Strait of Hormuz. And the conservative leaders of Iran are not going to yield.
Central banks are going to have to adjust. Countries with lower credit worthiness are going to have to sell down assets like gold.
This has the potential to be the biggest economic catastrophe since World War II. Much of this is just what I’ve been saying since February 27.
But, there is a new update! Totally unwarranted exclamations!
This past week the average temperature in the US dipped. Did you notice?
It’s been great weather in Georgia. Really, excellent BUT wheat doesn’t like cold. You may not know but winter wheat is a thing. And it’s therapy. This map is basically showing wheat murder.
With the spring planting season already under stress in Asia due to lack of fertilizers a weak US winter wheat harvest would be awful.
Right after war of cranky Russian aggression started the price of bagels spiked and Ukraine still hasn’t returned to full bagel producing capacity.
As of today we have no position on Wheat futures nor on oil futures nor are we holding any options. It’s at that point where goals for the year might need to be shifted.
When things make no sense there is very little you can do other than wait.
I did roll IWM puts today and I will continue this strategy for the foreseeable future.
— AJ
Event Horizon Tools
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