What Happened Today?
Friday March 6, 2026
MACRO:
Payroll data disappointed. And I am sure option writers were miffed. Put/Call ratios were so high yesterday that bad news must of really hurt them this morning. They needed good data to bounce the market and wipe out the chain.
I was caught unhedged today because I expected market makers to bounce the market.
The reality that war in the Middle East is not a long weekend sort of affair has hit social media. Trump’s gamble that starting a war is good for the incumbent and that Iran will roll over as easy as Venezuela is very unlikely to pay off for him politically or for you economically.
We are at very precarious time in American history. World history really.
Let’s call it the “everybody is cranky and needs a nap” time. The more uncertain and anxious every one gets the poorer everyone gets. If the world removed racism, literally everyone would be richer. Everyone. Any stressor hurts GDP.
Anxiety makes you poor.
The whole idea of runaway inflation is that people will overact and buy stuff thinking it will go up in price. Well the opposite works as well. If people expect stuff to go down in price they will stop buying stuff.
“Stuff” being stocks and other assets. People need to be content and happy to park their money in stocks. America really needs a second coming of Obama. A President that is going to screw everyone over but that makes people happy so they ignore it.
Anyways the point is, bid pressure is going to stay very low. Very, very low unless something changes in the Middle East. At least until people start to forget and move on to whatever the next anxiety inducing stressor is.
Unless adults suddenly appear in leadership roles over there over the weekend that is. Hasn’t happened in 1200+ years though so don’t hold your breath.
It’s now a race between recession, the SPV bond market imploding, private credit imploding and whatever else the media can use to worry people.
Here is the thing about market crashes. You don’t have to see them coming you just have to buy PUTS when they happen. You don’t need to be smarter than the market. You don’t need to be early. You just need to accept it’s going to be expensive and buy puts.
You just pay the premium.
CRYPTO:
Saylor bought more bitcoin and then bitcoin started to fall again. Remember as a kid when you would hit a ballon and it would bounce higher and the fall back down and you’d have to hit it again to keep it up. Remember, how you eventually realized you were the only reason the balloon was staying up and tired of the game?
Saylor isn’t that smart. He is like a seal at the zoo at this point.
MICRO:
Peraso ($PRSO) took off today. It recently tripped ACC and was riding the $1.00 threshold. Totally missed this one. The SEC rule change around reverse splits appears to have made the $1.00 delinquency threshold more solid than in previous years. This is an easy screen for anyone to find these stocks.
Decent Holdings ($DXST) also tripped both the box setup and ACC and today it too took off. I love the name. Not good. Not bad. Just decent.
As the market breadth widens more stocks outside of biotechs will fall into play. By widen, I mean more stuff falls back to the channel.
In private equity, Valar Atomics is raising capital. This is a TRISO SMR play and I believe the only nuclear company that has reached criticality and might potentially make Trumps July 4th deadline. If they achieve this milestone it should ripple through the public sector companies.
But, I doubt they will make. The helium cooling system is going to be tricky to get right. The thing about high pressure and helium is helium is fucking tiny. It’s the octopus of the gas family. It can squeeze out of any trap. This is a pretty complicated problem when operating in a variable temperature environment especially where the temperature range is so extreme.
Not to ruin my gloom parade here, but I like this company. I don’t think TRISO is the way to go but I do like this company.
There are a few battles being waged in the press right now. One is over private credit. The other is over uniQure (NASDAQ:$QURE) and the last is over AI being a bubble.
If the market makes you nervous. You can always just park in cash or short-term bills. Remember, statistics say 98% of professional money managers have gotten their dick stuck in a hot tub at least once. You are smarter than most of them.
I did add to a position today Solid Biosciences (NASDAQ:$SLDB) because of the capital raise.
As always, if you think there are spelling errors update your dictionary to the latest version. Happy speculation!
— AJ