CPI came in right in-line. This means rate cuts are not likely this year. If nothing else were going on that is. If only nothing else was going on…
Oracle beat earnings. This drove dip buying into tech stocks which provided buoyancy to the SPY and QQQ. I didn’t read the 10Q here because I know what it would say. They have moved all liabilities they can onto SPVs and taken in revenue reciprocally. It’s all Enron accounting at this point.
Iran took out three oil tankers. Which drove oil back up and caused basically every other stock to lose bid pressure. So dip buyers made the market look more stable than it really was on the day. But, since a lot of people bought PUTS market makers had to pin the market to crush those. Which they did.
Every hedge fund that can, is shorting the stock market right now. This is such an obvious no-brainer trade. But, Trump also has no brain, and he could an any moment say something that causes retail to dip buy and forces a short squeeze.
Every options seller is trying to pin the market every day to bank premiums in this high VIX cycle. So you have this hedge fund and hedge fund war going on under lying a market that fucking ended dead flat.
Wall Street (i.e. the investment banking side) can’t let the market crash until OpenAI, Space-X, go IPO because if the market crashes first the total losses would just be colossal.
No idea what is going to happened BUT what I do know is when oil rolls over or when the Russell rallies intraday taking the opposite side is still paying off. So far oil dips then goes up and the Russel goes up and then dips.
Every day so far. Kind of spiffy.
As always, if you think there are spelling errors update your dictionary to the latest version. Happy speculation!
— AJ
Event Horizon Tools
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