What Happened Today?
Monday December 8, 2025
Macro:
Not much. Just… 10 yr Japan bonds hit 1.972. There will be a psychology gut check at 2 which I presume we will hit by Friday.
The carry trade will be effectively wiped out when the Fed cuts Thursday. It’s just unknown if that trade has already unwound or not.
With the FOMC decision and more importantly the press conference on Wednesday the first half of this week is going to be low bid pressure. So I just shorted the open.
Tomorrow’s JOLTS data I don’t think matters to the Fed at this point. It might spook the market briefly though.
Crypto:
Saylor’s Strategy MSTR 0.00%↑ disclosed it bought another $1B in bitcoin last week.
In March of 1980, three brothers attempted to corner the silver market. Their understanding of supply and demand predicted that if they could buy enough silver they could force a persistent short squeeze and spike the value of futures contracts. And they were right. If only they had enough cash to do this with borrowing they could have made a lot of money.
This is the same basic principle that Archegos used and that created the GameStop phenomenon. Archegos also had to borrow massive amounts of money from multiple banks at high leverage. GameStop just needed all of sports gambling to shut down temporarily. Regardless, you can’t squeeze an asset on your own.
At one point the Hunt brothers owned nearly 1/3rd of silver held by non-government bodies. But unfortunately market forces decided to act against them. The risk the brothers were taking on was deemed too great so margin rules were adjusted and then Tiffany’s Jewelers enraged the necklace mafia and it was over.
Silver fell 50% over a week and wiped the brothers out entirely.
Now Strategy isn’t buying on leverage. Saylor is using simple debt and selling shares. But, his game is the same. He is trying to tie up the liquid float as much as possible to drive a short squeeze.
Currently, the company owns 660,624 BTC. There is about 15M bitcoin that is held in active or potentially active wallets. The rest are lost. So that’s 4% of the float. Saylor only needs to 5x his position to secure a victory. At current prices he only needs to raise another $216B which means selling another 1.2B shares without any price change.
Or he can attract another $216B in HODLERs.
Micro:
Wave Life Sciences WVE 0.00%↑, Fulcrum Therapeutics FULC 0.00%↑ and Structure Therapeutics GPCR 0.00%↑ all released data a bit earlier than the code predicted.
Wave and Structure are weight loss drugs which continues to be the en vogue narrative. A competitor in this space Fractyl Health GUTS 0.00%↑ was down early in the day then rallied.
It’s good for humanity that GLP-1 similars are so easy to create but competition is going to drive down long term value here.
HoldCo Asset Management, founded by Vik Ghei and Misha Zaitzef who have a long history of being asshats IMO, went after the CEO of Keybank KEY 0.00%↑ for using capital to make acquisitions instead of buying back shares and is threatening a proxy fight.
I am not making a prediction here, but if I was the CEO of Keybank I’d want to shore up the stock price.
On a similar thread, Apple executives are fleeing en mass because Apple is being cautious about AI. This is all very me-me short-term thinking. Apple has the only platform that matters to the attention span economy and I think they have been very smart to avoid spending cap-ex on AI.
And lastly, Paramount PSKY 0.00%↑ entered a hostile $108B bid to acquire WBD 0.00%↑ after Trump said he didn’t like the Netflix NFLX 0.00%↑deal. David Ellison is spending money like it’s printed by Milton Bradley.
This is akin to putting money in the jukebox on a sinking ship. Hollywood is dead. Long-form creative content has become background noise. And YouTube just does it better.
Unless Paramount finds a way to wedge gambling into the next Harry Potter series and don’t see how this makes any financial sense.
But, Larry Ellison is getting his full measure out of his campaign contributions so at least we know our political system is working as intended.
These executives (Saylor, Ellison, Altman, Zuckerberg, Musk, etc) all appear to be actively trying to reach the “too big to fail” threshold. These numbers really don’t make sense otherwise.
This is analogous to the movie Speed. There is a gap in the road ahead and you know you can’t stop so you just decide to hit the accelerator because physics doesn’t apply in cinema.
We all get to find out of debt is a real physical force.
Or not.
Precious Metals:
Rumor is dealers are refusing to buy at spot again for silver.
The everything bubble, which started out as descriptor of just the bubble in equities from passive investing, is now literally every asset class. There is no place to hide here.
We own Fractyl Health and are considering taking out a short position on silver. And will trade options around the FOMC meeting press conference this week.
If you like our risk/event charts they are available in chat via subscription. This subscription fee covers the cost of running all this code. Amazon Web services and data plans are not cheap.
As always, if you think there are spelling errors update your dictionary to the latest version. Happy speculation!
— AJ
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