What Happened Today?
Monday August 10, 2026
MACRO:
The US Treasury and BoJ can’t keep the Yen up. The risk of the carry trade blowing up is more paranoia than reality at this point BUT going into the BoJ meeting that paranoia might solidify into a solid gut punch.
The SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell again. There are legal reasons (and physical reasons too more on this in a second) the SPR can’t fall to zero so don’t extrapolate a line that far. The SPR can not legally fall below 252 million barrels unless there is an “emergency” in which case… it can.
US regulatory walls are really just paper guidelines and Trump will be stupid here and just step through.
But, there is also a limit where the storage and pumping equipment will no longer function. Most reservoirs will suffer under low cavern inventory limits. For example, last report showed half of the Bayou Choctaw reserves had only one remaining drawdown available. And West Hackberry is partially offline already. I don’t know what the aggregate figure is when this becomes a problem.
But, we have to be pretty close. Like really close.
The SPR is at 290 million barrels today at a drawdown rate of about 6 million barrels per week.
CPI is Wednesday. This is probably the most important reading so far this year which is why it’s highlighted in blood. With the recent weak jobs data if this CPI is disinflationary the bond market will swing around again. This will trap a lot of “three rate hikes this year” traders.
I can’t see past CPI. I want to see past the CPI to the election but unfortunately, I don’t trust the BLS anymore so I am leaning towards the data being manipulated. As of today, my intention is to wait for the data and then trade the market if it reacts incorrectly and not hedge the release itself. As usual, expect a low bid scenario as people wait out the data.
I personally am at a cross roads. Feeling like it might be getting close to beach time again.
MICRO:
Tenax (NASDAQ:$TENX) blew up taking out all of biotwitter. If a company is using a drug that has already gone through trials that likely means the company is just a share seller.
Think about it?
If you’re in a study on a drug your doctor is going to constantly ask you questions. If any patient on previous IV levosimendan trials had told their doctor:
“I find walking much easier.” Or “I’ve noticed I can walk up stairs.” Or in the case of one rather famous drug “Hey doc, I am getting 12 hour erections on this drug” your doctor is going to take note.
The fact is, if a drug has any positive side effects, it will come out in the trials and the original drug company will start a new trial with a new end point.
The fact this didn’t happen was a pretty good sign the drug does nothing related to the current trial.
A lot of companies will find a drug that has been shown to be safe and just gamble on it all the while selling shares. It’s not a gamble really from the companies perspective. It’s more of a “well this drug doesn’t do anything but we know it won’t cause harm either” play.
The CEO gets a nice salary. The investors get to ride the stock price up and sell along the way. Investors in the previous drug get a new chance to get out. But, you don’t need to think that hard on this. Just look at the previous price history.
Tenax has a long history selling shares. Just look at the price adjusted chart on Google.
It is extremely common tactic to recycle safe drugs for the purpose of selling shares and there is a chapter in my book on biotech speculation. If you want in kindle form instead of a google doc it’s on Amazon.
Just read the chapter on Axovant.
—AJ