What Happened Today?

Friday July 31, 2026

MACRO:

Korean markets bounced. But, here is the thing. They didn’t bounce for Koreans. A retail trader can’t recapitalize after being liquidated on a Tuesday by Thursday.

The majority of activity was foreign investment returning. This is an old chart but I can’t find the report with a more up-to-date one.

That flow reversed last night with foreign investors running back into the market. KOPSI set a record gaining 18%.

Japanese authorities intervened to stop the Yen from falling leading up to the BOJ decision which was made to hold rates steady. There was a currency intervention in June of 1998 before the tech bubble burst as well. This does not change the time-line.

The 30Yr US Treasury yield is holding above 5% and rising. The 10Yr is following now reaching 4.73%. This isn’t a US problem. This is a global problem.

Investors are selling off the entire Earth. Which makes sense inflation is sticky in Europe more so than here.

And finally, BP laid off 700 workers because of a supply “glut.” The world has too much oil. I dare you to find an economist who said that after the Strait of Hormuz was shut down for four months that there would be too much oil.

There are rumored to be two other funds taking on water in this recent tech rout. If they aren’t leveraged this isn’t a concern but we don’t know. Other hedge funds are of course going to want to help out - by shorting the holdings of those funds and trying to drown them. So expect choppy trading.

There is a lot less uncertainty today. But, there still is uncertainty.

MICRO:

NovoNordisk took out biotechs today after announcing its Phase 3 ZEUS Ziltivekimab failed to meet its primary end point. A trial for heart disease is continuing.

Earnings are August 5th. Might be an arbitrage trade here since earnings should be pretty good following the launch of oral Wegovy.

—AJ