What Happened Today?
Tuesday June 2, 2026
MACRO:
Nothing new has happened on the ((Us vs. ((Israel) vs. Lebanon) vs. Iran)) conflict. Trump is still in denial that he can salvage some sort of face. He can’t.
Trump being elected saved him from potentially going to prison. Netanyahu knows as long as there is still a way his trial will be delayed. Just follow the rig report.
You can see that when the conflict began in February US oil producers were in disbelief the price of oil would stay up long enough to make pumping more worth their while. Lately, they have change their minds on this. This leads to a strange situation for traders. Because, yes we are running out of oil so the price should go up. But, also yes we are starting to produce more oil so the price should go down.
As Buffet would say, this goes on the too hard pile.
In other Trump news he stated he had 4.8% body fat. So at least we have the fitness leader on Earth. It’s quite amazing someone can live off of McDonald’s Happy Meals and be so thin.
Microstrategy was forced to dump bitcoin. This is now an inertial problem for both Saylor and HODLERS. The only buyer of bitcoin in the last 6 months was Saylor. As Saylor is forced to sell the price will fall and he will be forced to sell more.
When the miners left to become hyperscalers there was no future. I think everyone knew this but Saylor.
This inertial trade is something setting up in the Korean, Japanese and US markets as well. Fewer and fewer people are in a fewer number of positions and using more and more leverage.
If gains are cocaine. Leverage is crack. If people keep chasing gains with leverage eventually these markets are going to unwind that leverage in spectacular fashion. A rapid unplanned spontaneous disassembling.
Unfortunately, when this happens it’s going to hurt everyone.
MICRO:
Berkshire bought more Google (NASDAG:GOOGL.) This feels more like a duct tape trade. Can’t exit so you buy more to try and shore up the foundation underlying your existing position.
Biotechs had a fun day yesterday after-hours which led to a fall out today.
All the crowded-by-retail biotech trades imploded. I am a very taciturn person but I was so worried about the retail manipulation on Abivax (NASDAQ:$ABVX) I wrote four substacks on it after we exited last year. 1 2 3 4
Celcuity (NASDAQ:$CELC) dumped on a sell-the-news type of move. There is less merit to this sell off. But, it still expensive relative to pretty much every biotech listed in the US. Would you rather buy a stock up 10x or find the next one that hasn’t run yet? Most sophisticated investors will do the latter.
And lastly, Fulcrum Therapeutics (NASDAQ:$FULC) dumped. In this case it just fell through the channel. So at some point we will be buying this one again. But, at $2.95 (where it is sitting as I write) it still is not attractive.
The reason we show 5x the chart low is that is typically a good place to get off the train. Especially if you bought below the channel the last time and got that 5x return. And it’s exactly where you should have gotten off this train.
One of the few biotech’s not getting dragged down today, Biovie (NADSAQ$:$BIVI) is up 16% today. This tripped ∆Liquidity and ACC/Con recently. Looks like a run into fund raising. Still holding but have an ask set already on this one. There is no conviction here. Just a mechanical trade.
This is a company trying to cure everything which usually means it’s just a share seller.
Ebola is having a party in West Africa again. I only found one potential play, Traws Pharma (NASDAQ:$TRAW.) They issued a PR on Ebola last week which did nothing for the stock. Like BioVie they still are working on COVID as well. So they too are chasers.
In July the company has a vote to authorize warrant conversions from the April offering. One to watch. No position on this one. Timing these stocks is not something I am good at. But, it looks like someone front ran this.
— AJ