What Happened Today?
Monday March 9, 2026
MACRO:
The FDA’s decision to fire that guy who does not deserve to be named did rally biotechs today. Even as the market seemed ready to implode this morning. Yay.
Iran elected a new dead guy. Since Israel has free reign here the new Supreme Leader is on the clock. They must really not like the guy.
There are two camps in regards to the situation in Iran. One camp believes oil will rally back very soon. The other camp believes the market is going to go down 10% as oil stays elevated.
I tend to lean into the latter camp. So I just did what I have been doing and rolled my PUTS flipping to lower cost and extend duration. I think I have added 25-30% to nearly every position this year just turning over PUTS. If the market would just stay like this I would be very happy.
MICRO:
The effect of the FDA news was almost everything went up in bio-world. Of the basket of stocks I am interested in about 80% were up today. Here are the top performers. The office or me personally own (NASDAQ:$SLDB,$CCCC,$QURE Calls, $PLYX, $CAMP.)
An2 Therapeutics I exited (too early per usual.) A recent ACC/Consolidation alert.
I won my first stock trading competition in 1988. I was twelve and I took the top prize in the county. Not just my middle school. I beat all high schoolers. I was very proud. I was lucky I didn’t get pounded standing there looking down at all the kids I had to look up at.
This was the only trading competition I ever won so this was not the beginning of anything just shows how old I am.
At this point, I have more experience than most analysts have years out of diapers. And a lot of what analysts are saying during pitch sessions and in commentary doesn’t make much sense to me. I am not talking about the public sector. I think almost everything that is written down now was generated by AI.
But, experience doesn’t matter when the market has run for as long as it has and is fully supported by corporate share buybacks and every central bank providing buoyancy. The market has made many idiots rich and very smart people poor. The fact I remember the market before COVID doesn’t mean anyone else does. And as long as everyone runs in the same direction that’s the way the market is going to go.
Until of course someone misses a bond payment and an SPV blows up OR Space-X and OpenAI get to IPO and Wall Street can just let it crash.
I keep having to remember Rule #3 in this market. For those of you not in chat here are the rules.
THE RULES.
There are four fundamental principles that govern the dynamics of the stock market, which one must thoroughly understand and accepted as truth in order to consistently make money:
Rule #1: The primary function of the public market is to sell equity shares with the lowest position in the capital structure.
Rule #2: It is inadvisable to engage in speculative shorting of religious or deeply held belief systems.
Rule #3: One should invest in areas of familiarity, yet it remains crucial not to dismiss opportunities in domains where you cannot see the logic of value.
Rule #4: It is important to recognize that other participants in the market are generally not aligned with your financial interests.
Put simply with Anecdotes:
Rule #1: Public companies exist to sell one product: stock.
When you drive to a grocery store to buy tomatoes, it may not occur to you, but buying that tomato gives you a legal right over the store and the grower. If that tomato makes you sick, you can file a civil claim and recoup damages.
When you buy stock in a company via your broker, you gain certain legal rights and entitlements over the company that sold the stock to you.
The product you are buying is just a share of stock. All a company’s primary products for sale are common stock shares. The reason companies go public is that it is much easier to sell common stock, which can be legally created out of thin air, than to grow tomatoes.
If the company goes bankrupt, these shares are the very last to be remunerated for losses, and you should assume they are valueless—just a piece of paper you can hang on your wall.
Rule #2: Don’t short religion.
Mormonism was founded in the early 19th century by Joseph Smith, a man who claimed to have received divine revelations, in, of all places, Missouri. Mormons quickly became persona non grata to the point that the U.S. government went to war with them and expelled them to the remote deserts of Utah. If you had wagered that Mormonism would cease to exist in 100 years, you would have lost.
Though hard to understand from the outside, one thing is certain: faith is a stronger incentive than economics. If any company shows signs of taking on a religious vibe or has a cult-of-personality-type leader that people revere and see no fault in, don’t short the stock.
You will lose. Bitcoin, Herbalife, Magic: The Gathering cards—these things inexplicably survive and thrive in the desert, despite all rationalization or logic.
Rule #3: Invest in what you know, but don’t discount what you find stupid.
Make-up. Makes no sense to me as a man and a parent. But Ulta Beauty is packed every time I drive by the mall. To consistently make money, you have to be aware of not only what is valuable to you, but also what is worthless to you but valuable to other people.
The best recent example is Bitcoin, of course. If a new product comes on the market and it makes your life better or your job easier, it’s likely something to look into investing in. But if you hear about a product that makes zero sense to you, remember, you did hear about it—meaning it must make sense to a lot of people already.
Don’t discount opportunities just because the product doesn’t have value to you. There are 8 billion other people on Earth.
Rule #4: No other market participant wants you to make money.
That seems a bit harsh, but the reality is that other market participants—traders, investors, speculators, corporate executives, funds, investment bankers—are all trying to make money for themselves. And if that means taking your money, that is exactly what they will try to do.
You cannot trust anyone.
If you chose to not read the rest of the book the above information should be a sufficient framework to prevent you from ending up insolvent.
As always, if you think there are spelling errors update your dictionary to the latest version. Happy speculation!
— AJ