Reality escapith.
The Dollar Index closed down -1.48%. The second worst single day drop only surpassed by the -1.80% drop April 10, 2026.
I usually don’t care about earnings but META, Microsoft and Tesla are all due after-hours tomorrow. Tesla is trying so hard to pack this quarter it motivating people through threat of a monthly service fee being applied to full self driving in February.
I still think OpenAI, Oracle, META and Microsoft are going to lose to Google, Anthropic and a potted plant in the AI race. I think they have lost already. And until Tesla embraces its true nature which is to make sex robots for nerds, it is not investable.
XBI 0.00%↑ is showing signs of weakening. But, micro caps are showing strength. Why?
Likely because foreign participants are now seeing speculative stocks as cheap compared to crypto/precious metals/etc. If you are Korean our stock market is suddenly very, very cheap.
Either that or the market is setting up to crash heads tomorrow when the FOMC confirms abatement of rate cut expectations for 2026. I am heavily hedged just in case Koreans are not our saviors.
Here is SCOTUS’ calendar. Any day the court is in session they could rule on tariffs.
Fractyl Health moved after-hours yesterday allowing me to flip out and then crashed today allowing for me to flip (partially) back in. It isn’t far enough out of the channel right now to walk away even though data is due this week and the entire position is free at this point.
Cardiff Oncology crashed down 30% today on trial data. CRDF was about one band higher but has a considerably higher per share cost so it is possible this was stop-loss harvesting.
At $1.99 CRDF is just inside EM2 again. We don’t own CRDF at this time.
We are currently carrying 73 biotechs. Down from our usual load but up slightly from December of 2025. Eight of those positions are completely free from flipping/umbrella strategy.
If you like our risk/event charts they are available in chat via subscription. This subscription fee covers the cost of running all this code. Amazon Web services and data plans are not cheap.
As always, if you think there are spelling errors update your dictionary to the latest version. Happy speculation!
— AJ
Event Horizon Tools
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