Bid pressure dropped as expected. Russell is still pinned and rolling over. Still mostly playing volatility. Which I expect I will do all year long until midterms.
What was unexpected was Waller to dissent by only 25 bps. That subtle shift from his 50 bps dissent last meeting to 25 bps this meeting was all it took to prevent any sort of post Fed rally. The fact the boot licker is now confirming rate cuts are unlikely definitely didn’t draw new money into any interest-rate sensitive stocks. I will be re-evaluating a bit tomorrow.
I haven’t had time go through Microsoft and META’s earnings thoroughly but on a quick glance it appears Microsoft is claiming the change in evaluation of its odious OpenAI ownership stake as revenue.
So you buy shares in your son’s unprofitable lemonade stand for $1/share. And then later your wife buys shares in his still unprofitable lemonade stand for $3/share. Then you claim to your bank you have made $2s/share on your investments and get a mortgage.
In that story, you’re Microsoft. Your wife is Softbank. The Lemonade stand is OpenAI.
If only you were publicly traded you could just buy a new house just by wasting (sorry investing) in your son’s every dumb idea and claiming it as revenue.
META which is famous for wasting money on VR and the metaverse upped its 2026 cap ex on AI forecasts above the expected $100B. Instagram’s ad revenue has bailed Mark Zuckerberg out of some many dumb ideas. Has Mark ever made anything? Or does he always just take other people’s ideas and try to (copy them, steal them, buy them)?
I was able to flip back in to Shuttle Pharmaceuticals and Passage Bio today on the bid pressure drop today.
I am not sure if those decisions were smart or not. We will see how Waller’s change in tone plays out tomorrow. Pretty sure Friday is just going to be loopy as options market makers crush IV.
Still fully hedged. I don’t trust this market.
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As always, if you think there are spelling errors update your dictionary to the latest version. Happy speculation!
— AJ
Event Horizon Tools
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