February’s Money Manager results came out. There are 71 people in this section of the US Financial Championship. Eighteen have beaten the Russell on the year so far through February. Here is where our competition account placed. As of today, this account is up 25-ish%.
Jobless claims came in inline with estimates and continuing claims fell. This means the job market is not really weak. So the Fed is likely to focus more on inflation which is probably going to spike up above 4% on its way upward.
Trump said 10 oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Has Trump learned binary? Now that would be something. The firms that have satellites counting ships said 2.
The knock-on effects here are spreading. As manufacturing backs up it will slowly knock out link in the supply chain.
Obviously, there are still stocks in existence. Wave Life released data today and crashed down 55% not quite to the channel. This was another crowded retail trade. That green dot is Fidelity that red dot is Adage Capital a big hedge fund out of Boston.
I passed on NASDAQ:$WVE but I did add to NASDAQ:$GUTS earlier in the week. Still not a full position only second entry.
As long as the world is coming to an end just going to ride silver down with it. If you learn nothing else from the market of 2026, learn that gold and silver are NOT HEDGES. The dollar is the only safe-haven asset. And since the dollar is up, go to Europe before it gets too hot.
That little post close Trump pump bailed out my IWM 0.00%↑ CALLs and landed me some cheap IWM PUTS so back to rolling hedges.
I think Trump is basically lost at this point. Baron might be a GenZ trader but Kushner and everyone else around Trump is your typical investor. If the market crashes they lose a lot of money. Kushner is $100+ million into $QXO. A company whose business model requires happy people upgrading their houses. That business model doesn’t work in a high interest rate, high anxiety environment.
All that has to happen is the Houthis sneak one mine into Bab al-Mandab Strait or attack one tanker going through those waters or take out part of a pipeline for the entire world’s economy to implode.
Don’t short religion. It’s the most fundamental rule of investing.
By the time all this is done, the US is going to be building a Disney World in the desert for the new Ayatollah’s nephew.
As always, if you think there are spelling errors update your dictionary to the latest version. Happy speculation!
— AJ
Event Horizon Tools
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