What Happened Today?

Monday February 9, 2026

MACRO:

NIKKEI ran after the snap election results. This rally is on the backs of presumed added stimulus. At least that is the prevailing narrative. How this is going to play out is outside of my intellectual capacity to guess. Though the market is still in control. It really doesn’t matter what federal policy is if the market disagrees.

Hard to say when the Pokemon economy is going to slow. Considering Pokemon ran a Superbowl ad yesterday it might be about to slow.

What is interesting here is how accurate Kashi has been for months about about the general results but only recently got the degree of the victory correct so this result might not have been priced in.

I wasn’t following the prediction markets and just looked today. Don’t think I had any of this figured beforehand.

What can be said is the dollar continued to to show weakness today. If you check the BRICs and any Latin American HF index you will see 18-35% YTD gains already. Sell America was pretty profitable for those funds.

We will get the payroll data that was skipped last week on Wednesday and the latest CPI on Friday. The Truflation figures are showing near zero inflation. I have no idea if this reported value has any utility but Twitter users are just spamming it every day now.

Since Trump has continually made comments when the data is good, any silence might be read by the market is not good.

The fact dollar stores and Walmart are doing well is not a sign the economy is functioning though. When you see Porsches and Brabuses (Brabis?) in the corner Walmart parking lot its hard to believe the k-shaped economy hasn’t become a lambda λ economy i.e. everyone is starting to struggle. Or at least are now aware of just how expensive inflation has made everything.

Remember, SCOTUS could rule next week on tariffs.

All of this, and likely a lot of things I missed, dropped bid pressure in US market all day taking down micro-caps on spread effects.

MICRO:

Google dropped a prospectus with a 100 year term note. Personally, when you are issuing 100 year bonds in a relatively high interest rate environment I read that as a bad move. Nothing says innovation like Centenarian status debt.

After an initial drop the market did a slow crawl upwards after the news. Head scratcher there too. Almost like the market it just operating on market making activity only today.

Neumora Therapeutics has data due eminently. We exited already but if you like Phase 3 data releases here you go.

If you like our risk/event charts they are available in chat via subscription. This subscription fee covers the cost of running all this code. Amazon Web services and data plans are not cheap.

As always, if you think there are spelling errors update your dictionary to the latest version. Happy speculation!

— AJ

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