What Might Happened?
Friday July 3, 2026
A lot of people are complaining online about Boomers destroying everything but when Taylor Swift played a concert here the audience was full of Millenials and GenZ who dropped upwards of $2k per ticket to watch her perform. So where’d that money come from? My mom (a boomer) had a car when I was a kid that cost less than $2k. So the economy must not be that bad.
That was two years ago.
The sky has not fallen. Has it?
Oil just spiked. Was there rationing? I didn’t see any lines at any gas stations. Is there any stress in the economy? Really, is there?
Granted, my locality is not indicative of the entirety of the US but still. I don’t see signs of trouble. Literally, there aren’t for sale signs on any yards.
Which of my readers are going to Taylor Swift’s wedding tonight? Or are you watching the Argentina v Cape Verde match? If you go to either count how many empty seats there are. Both stadiums will be packed. If you are streaming either from home how big is your TV? If you are going somewhere to watch it do you suspect that place to be empty?
The England v Congo game was sold out here. DR Congo has a GPD/capita less than Ticket Master surcharges. And, if you don’t know, DR Congo is located here. Right below the red country in Africa.
The stands of Mercedes Benz Stadium were full of people who paid $500+ per ticket. Everyone in a $100+ jersey. Everyone drinking over priced beverages.
Ask yourself, does it feel like a recession is going on or is on the horizon?
Does if feel like there is too little money in the US right now? Does the Fed need to might things even easier?
The argument that the Taylor Swift concert was a once-in-a-lifetime expense and that people would cut back did not pan out with reality. Reality is people are still spending money like it grows on trees. If you don’t know what a tree is… it’s like a lamppost but that grows out of dirt and not asphault.
The question remains, is there too much money in the US economy right now?
The questions isn’t should I have more money? Of course you should. The question is do you think there should be so much money that a ticket to the World Cup final will cost $100k and there will be a line of people willing to pay it.
If Colombia makes it Atlanta next week a box to that game might cost $100+k and I have friends who will not even bat an eyelash at that figure.
That is the question the FOMC is going to have to answer. I get that a rate cut will help your stocks. It would help my positions as well but that isn’t a logical reason do cut interest rates … unless the FOMC voting members primary goals are to make their own number go up.
Let’s look at the data (that matters). Not the CPI, PCE, jobs numbers. All of these things (so far) point to a rate hike.
There are 12 voting members of the FOMC (below is a list)
Only one member is wealthy. Kevin Warsh. And coincidentally he is also the only voting member that married an heiress. So he has no knowledge of how to make money on his own and is likely very insecure about it. So he most certainly is in the number-go-up camp.
Four voting members have ties to Wall Street. They are likely in that number go-up-camp.
Five come from academic backgrounds.
Six are career economists. Three others are career officials.
The the FOMC votes is the Chair presents a question. Should we hike rates 25 bps? And then everyone votes yes or not. Get it wrong and no one is going to invite you speak every again.
And this is where most voting members will make their money. What concerns them is not number-go-up but legacy.
It is very difficult to see any arrangement of pawns that supports the idea of number-go-up rate cuts mentality and this is ignoring the reality that most of them hate Trump because he is attacking them.
-AJ