What Happened Today?
Thursday December 11, 2025
Macro:
Jobless claims were above expectations. Doesn’t really matter. Not-QE Wink Wink starts tomorrow. Here is the Fed statement. You should read it.
The Fed also voted to renew all 11 regional Presidents. So no matter what Trump does he can’t change interest rate policy.
Micro:
As a reminder, I am switching strategies going in to 2026. Today was just the first Substack relating to the strategy shift.
Because Oracle missed earnings yesterday I anticipated a low bid pressure day in tech stocks while the market waited out BroadComm’s earning. I call this phenomenon of low bid pressure after bad news the Harbinger Effect.
It’s a hobbling of the mind. Something bad happens and people tend thing that the recent bad news some how changes the odds of an independent event and sit on their hands. You can argue that the AI companies are interdependent but you wouldn’t think a YMCA Men’s league team called the Thunder losing would have any affect on the OKC Thunder, right?
So this morning I set a bid on Google in case people decided to short the sector. That bid was at $312.20. A few days ago $312.19 was the intraday low. There is no real deep thought that went into this.
I underbid various strike Calls as well for the day. Again no deep thought.
Then I didn’t look again at the market until 4pm. That was a mistake as I could have doubled down. I didn’t expect shorts to be able to move Google to $308!
“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets” I am paraphrasing what Baron Rothschild said after the Battle of Waterloo. It’s most commonly written as “When there is blood on the streets buy property.”
The full quote invokes a different vision though.
“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.“ As expected, BroadComm beat expectations. And I exited on the bounce.
All the calls are in-the-money as of this writing. Will see what the calls return tomorrow. Depending on the over night action I may close some of the positions tomorrow or just ride them. Or they might lose money.
This was a considerable amount of capital to put at-risk to make a 1% return.
Higher percentage returns were found elsewhere today.
NASDAQ:$RZLT announced phase 3 data this morning and promptly fell 90% completely through the channel. When it hit 97 cents premarket. I started buying and ended with a position at a cost of $1.045.
Still holding some shares. As of this writing Rezolute is trading at $1.40.
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As always, if you think there are spelling errors update your dictionary to the latest version. Happy speculation!
— AJ