What Happened Today?
Monday March 30, 2026
There is really no point in discussing economics at this point. Except it’s fun.
Last night the Head of the Iranian Parliament forecasted that Trump would try and pump the market and he recommended you short it.
He was right. I’ve been rolling PUTS since January this is what happens when the market has a ceiling. All pumps are sold.
All that is new is the ceiling is being moved lower and lower because this Administration has the collective IQ of a parakeet. Not a parrot. Remember a parrot once beat a market. A parakeet. A bird so dumb it will fly into a window that is open.
Then this morning Bill Ackman, who was so scared his market short position wouldn’t work out fled and hid in a cave at the beginning of COVID, but still had enough sense to call into CNBC and let everyone know he was in a cave because of COVID and also was short the market, said stocks are cheap. Specifically naming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Which then took off +40% because Trump loyalists thing he is going to allow them to be privatized.
Ackman’s comments did not help the market though. Russell fell almost 1% afterwards his comments. Ackman’s Pershing Square is down 20% on the year already. Pershing Square charges a 20% performance fee. Since he took his fund public he has under performed the S&P 500. But, still gotten rich. I am telling you if you want to be rich you need to have white hair at 30. It worked for Ackman and Peter Lynch.
Notice, the two biggest market catalysts today, both need to get some Sun. That is all that matters right now. Being pallid.
Ah well I guess we should still consider economics.
MACRO:
JOLTS data is tomorrow. Job openings is expected to fall. And if job openings don’t fall tomorrow then nothing makes sense. The treasury market finally yielded with the 30Yr T briefly hitting 5%.
I have discussed this psychological level many times even wrote it up once here.
Trump said Iran would allow 20 ships to sail through the Strait of Hormuz today. I don’t have the full data yet but Reuters is reporting two did. Which is better than zero. Here is the latest data.
One good thing is no ships have been attacked since March 19th. This is likely more important than anything Trump says.
At some point insurance rates will fall and ships will move.
There are reports of US service personal being in the Middle East but unfortunately there are no supply ships or vehicles in the Middle East. The carrier that was sent there originally had a fire and returned to wherever carrier’s go and the other support vessels last I heard were refueling at Pearl Harbor.
Which is far away. And boats are really slow. Especially big boats.
So Iran still has full control of the Strait of Hormuz.
MICRO:
Another biotwitter favorite Precigen ($PGEN) collapsed after-hours today. No position and not likely to start one until it’s sub $1.00 or sets up a reverse split vote for us.
Virgin Galatic ($SPCE) tripped consolidation last week. I posted this to chat when it happened. It today it took off (pun) on news it was resuming pumping the stock. If you pay $750k to take this flight. You are an idiot.
But, it does perfectly illustrate that accumulation/consolidation signal and the power of a constricted float.
I did read a very interesting proposal today. And, conveniently it’s not hidden behind an non-disclosure statement so I can share. Go here and download the presentation at the bottom. A 22% and 13% year/year return average is not bad for betting against hurricanes.
As always, if you think there are spelling errors update your dictionary to the latest version. Happy speculation!
— AJ
After I wrote this, Iran attacked an oil tanker... so much for that.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/30/iran-war-live-updates-trump-oil-kharg-island-houthis-israel-lebanon-middle-east?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with%3Ablock-69cad6648f0887f60811a8aa